Bitcoin Struggles Below Bull Market Support, Analysts Predict Volatility Explosion

• Bitcoin’s weekly candle closes below its bull market support band for the fourth consecutive week.
• Key moving averages remain below $58,748, indicated by analyst Benjamin Cowen’s observations.
• Compressed weekly candles suggest an impending volatility spike.

Bitcoin remains below key support levels, hinting at potential volatility and market movements. Stay informed with our latest analysis.

Bitcoin’s Persistent Struggle Below Bull Market Support

The closing price of Bitcoin ($58,748) has once again fallen below its crucial bull market support band. This marks the fourth consecutive week in which it has stayed under key moving averages. Noted analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted this trend in his recent analysis posted on X on August 19, 2024. The last three weekly candles have shown a compression trend, with two forming spinning tops, an indication that a significant volatility shift could be imminent.

A Surge in Short Positions and Market Stability

On August 19, HODL15Capital reported an aggressive increase in Bitcoin shorts across multiple exchanges, noting a 119% surge in 24-hour short volume. CoinGlass data has shown that crypto liquidations have stabilized, with 7,852 traders liquidated and total liquidations reaching $76.34 million. This suggests a return to more predictable market behavior, despite the heightened short positions.

Market Sentiment and Long-term Holding Trends

Web3 researcher Stacy Muur analyzed social and search sentiment for Bitcoin, noting that current levels mirror those last seen in November 2023. This raises questions about whether the bullish trend of spring 2024 was a brief anomaly or if there was no bull market at all. Glassnode data supports a strengthening of long-term holding sentiment, with nearly 75% of BTC supply remaining dormant for the past six months, according to Hodl Wave charts.

Historical Context and Future Projections

Analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ examined previous Bitcoin cycles, noting that we are roughly 125 days post-halving. Historically, Bitcoin tends to enter its parabolic phase approximately 160 days after a halving event. If past trends hold, Bitcoin may be poised for a breakout in late September. Such lulls in the year preceding a bull market peak have been consistent in prior cycles, suggesting current patterns follow historical norms.

External Factors Impacting Bitcoin

External factors, such as the upcoming U.S. presidential election and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, are likely to influence Bitcoin markets. The anticipation of an interest rate reduction in September, although largely factored into the market, remains a significant event. FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that continued BTC sales from U.S. government wallets have a psychological impact, causing buyers to delay purchases or speculate on further regulatory actions.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin continues to grapple with staying above key support levels, setting the stage for heightened volatility. While the market shows signs of stability with long-term holding trends strengthening, external economic factors and historical patterns suggest potential future movements. Investors should remain vigilant and informed, anticipating both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.