Bitcoin begins Q4 with a strong rally, breaking above $123,400 and reaching new highs amid U.S. government shutdown concerns.
Bitcoin began the fourth quarter with a powerful rally, recording one of its best opening weeks in Q4 history. Bitcoin price surged past the $123,400 mark, confirming a key breakout level and setting a new all-time high above $125,000. Analysts suggest that the recent uptrend is being supported by strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds and renewed investor interest during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
Strong Start to Q4 Fuels Market Optimism
The start of October has brought renewed momentum to Bitcoin. Data shows that Bitcoin has gained nearly 11% in the past week, marking one of the strongest starts to Q4 on record.
According to Daan Crypto Trades, the early weeks of the quarter have historically favored Bitcoin performance due to seasonal factors. He noted that while the pattern is not a guarantee, Bitcoin has closely tracked its historical averages over the last six months, which traders are watching closely.
$BTC October & Q4 starting off with a bang.
This was one of the best starting weeks in Q4 which BTC has ever seen.
As you can see, these upcoming weeks are generally pretty good for BTC in terms of seasonality. Good amount of intra-week volatility as well.
But I’ll keep… https://t.co/DXTqS8Dif6 pic.twitter.com/uhkrSlb1a1
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 6, 2025
This performance coincides with broader optimism in the market. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,559 on October 5, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 100%. Analysts have linked the surge to macroeconomic conditions, including the weakening U.S. dollar and investor movement away from traditional assets such as Treasury bonds. The cryptocurrency’s strong start has also been attributed to increasing ETF inflows and growing perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against financial uncertainty.
Bitcoin Price Breakout Above $123,400 Confirmed by Analysts
Market analysts have confirmed that Bitcoin has achieved a daily close above the key 123,400-dollar level, indicating a confirmed breakout. In a post by Rekt Capital, the analyst noted that Bitcoin had not only closed above this level but also retested it as support, signaling potential for continued upward movement. The level is now viewed as an important support zone that traders expect to hold as Bitcoin continues its advance.
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, recently stated that Bitcoin price could rise to 135,000 dollars in the coming weeks. He also suggested that the current U.S. government shutdown has contributed to the rally, as investors turn to alternative assets during political and fiscal uncertainty.
The note projected that Bitcoin price could reach as high as $200,000 by the end of the year if ETF inflows continue to increase, with an estimated 20 billion dollars in additional investments expected.
Several other analysts, including CrediBULL Crypto and Crypto Chase, have forecasted further price gains. They noted that if Bitcoin maintains its strength above the breakout level, the next price target could range between $135,000 and $150,000. Some traders also mentioned that any pullback to the $108,000 to $118,000 zone could present a short-term buying opportunity.
We blast through it.
Now that we’ve made new ATH’s in an impulsive manner, the next leg to 150k+ has begun imo.
At this stage- it is anyone’s guess how deep of a pullback we may get here at our highs (if any), but just like last time, anything above the lows of the origin of… https://t.co/UXOBiaFetD pic.twitter.com/CKIItoVMCc
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) October 5, 2025
Shutdown and ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin’s Rally
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has added another layer to the market dynamics. Analysts believe that investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a store of value during fiscal disruptions. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE exchange, explained that a depreciating U.S. dollar and potential interest rate cuts are encouraging investors to diversify into Bitcoin. The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped by more than 12% since the start of the year, its worst performance in decades.
Venture capital investor Will Clemente added that the latest surge was largely driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs rather than derivatives or treasury holdings. Data from Nova Dius President Nate Geraci showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 3.2 billion dollars in inflows last week, marking their second-best week since launch. Analysts agree that continued ETF participation and positive Q4 seasonality could help sustain Bitcoin’s upward momentum in the coming weeks.
As the quarter progresses, market watchers are keeping a close eye on whether Bitcoin can maintain its breakout above $123,400 and continue toward higher targets. The combination of macroeconomic factors, ETF growth, and seasonal strength suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish tone may persist through October.