Bitcoin risks a $105k retest after losing key support following Fed rate cut

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $112,623 as of press time, setting up a potential retest of the $105,500 support zone after losing the critical $115,000 level following the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 rate cut.

BTC briefly touched $118,000 in the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s 25 basis point cut. However, a profit-taking movement triggered a pullback that exposed the market’s sensitivity to leverage, according to the Bitfinex Alpha report.

Support lost

On-chain data indicates that $115,200 was a significant level for Bitcoin, as it represented the cost basis of approximately 95% of the supply. Keeping it is critical for maintaining demand-side momentum.

The report noted that failing to sustain above this threshold increases the likelihood of reverting to the 85-95% quantile range, between $105,500 and $115,200.

Perpetual futures played a central role in Bitcoin’s recent price action, with open interest reaching a cycle high of $85.9 billion on Sept. 13, before policy-driven volatility led to a decline to $82.2 billion.

The fall reflected heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic catalysts as leveraged traders were flushed around the FOMC meeting.

Short liquidations ahead of the Fed announcement triggered squeezes that fueled Bitcoin’s rally to $118,000.

CVD shift

However, the regime shifted abruptly following the pullback, with long liquidations spiking to dominate the liquidation rate at 62% as highly leveraged positions unwound.

The Cumulative Volume Delta across major exchanges has shifted from extreme selling to a near-balanced state, signaling a meaningful return of liquidity after persistent sell pressure dominated from late August through the FOMC meeting.

The stabilization highlights the critical role of futures markets in supporting the rally, as speculators positioned themselves for supportive policy outcomes.

The $105,500-$115,200 range represents the next major support zone where Bitcoin could find demand if current levels fail to hold.

This range corresponds to the cost basis for 85-95% of Bitcoin supply, making it a critical battleground for bulls and bears.

Market dynamics suggest Bitcoin’s path forward depends heavily on maintaining positions above key on-chain cost basis levels while derivatives markets continue to normalize after the Fed-induced volatility.

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