BITCOIN RISK INDICATOR Signals Diverging Markets, JPMorgan

In a week of mixed signals across global markets, some strategists are looking to the bitcoin risk indicator to interpret shifting risk appetite among investors.

JPMorgan analyst links Bitcoin to broader market risk

Jack Caffrey, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan, said on Tuesday that Bitcoin is now one of several key signals investors can monitor to gauge overall market risk. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Dec. 2, 2025, he argued that the crypto asset offers a window into risk appetite, especially when compared with traditional havens. However, its recent trading pattern has raised new questions.

Caffrey noted that Bitcoin’s recent weakness has contrasted with strength in gold. Moreover, this pattern suggests that some market participants may be rethinking Bitcoin’s perceived status as a “risk-free” asset. He pointed to several weeks in which gold rallied while the leading cryptocurrency came under pressure, calling the divergence noteworthy.

Bitcoin and gold divergence sparks debate over safe-haven status

The JPMorgan manager highlighted the ongoing bitcoin gold divergence as an important signpost for portfolio risk. When a traditional safe haven such as gold rallies while Bitcoin lags, it can indicate that investors are seeking safety in established stores of value while remaining cautious on newer digital assets. That said, Caffrey stressed that multiple explanations are possible for the price action.

One of the factors he cited is the outlook for interest rates and the yield curve. According to Caffrey, investors may be “looking at the prospect of a steeper yield curve supporting gold” in the months ahead. Moreover, that shift could reinforce gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty, even as Bitcoin struggles to keep pace.

In Caffrey’s view, treating Bitcoin as a bitcoin risk indicator does not mean it has become a pure safe haven. Instead, the asset sits within a complex web of signals, alongside equity sectors, credit spreads and commodities. However, its underperformance versus gold during recent rallies has fueled debate over whether Bitcoin can consistently behave like a risk-off asset in stressed markets.

Equity market leadership underscores investor confusion

Caffrey also drew attention to unusual leadership trends within the equity market. “If I shift my focus to the equity market where I’m a little bit spending much more of my time,” he said, “it’s certainly an interesting environment where you see leadership from interactive media names like say Alphabet and pharmaceutical names like Johnson and Johnson.” Moreover, he argued that these sectors often reflect different risk profiles.

Interactive media and big tech groups are frequently viewed as growth-oriented and more cyclical, often associated with “risk-on” sentiment. By contrast, large pharmaceutical companies can be perceived as more defensive. “Like one is risk off and one is perceived as risk on… I think it speaks to some of the confusion investors are attempting to navigate as we come into year-end,” Caffrey explained. That said, he suggested that the cross-currents are typical in late-cycle environments.

JPMorgan’s evolving Bitcoin strategy as a macro asset

Beyond market commentary, JPMorgan has been reshaping its own approach to digital assets. The bank has recently turned more bullish on Bitcoin as a macro asset, emphasizing its growing role in diversified portfolios. Moreover, the firm has introduced structured notes linked to Bitcoin ETFs, giving clients indirect exposure through regulated instruments.

JPMorgan also plans to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ether as loan collateral by year-end, signaling a further step toward integrating crypto assets into traditional finance. However, the bank is framing these initiatives within a controlled risk framework, reflecting ongoing regulatory and market uncertainties. Its evolving stance forms a key part of the broader jpmorgan bitcoin outlook as digital assets mature.

Overall, Caffrey’s remarks underscore how Bitcoin is increasingly embedded in mainstream risk analysis, even as its relationship with gold, equities and the yield curve remains fluid. Investors now face the task of interpreting these mixed signals as they position portfolios heading into the close of 2025.