Bitcoin reserves hit 10-year low – How will BTC prices react?

Key Takeaways

Why is Bitcoin’s supply-side contraction significant?

Exchange reserves have dropped to decade lows, indicating tightening supply and growing accumulation among long-term holders and institutions. 

What do on-chain metrics suggest about Bitcoin’s next move?

Despite short-term selling dominance, improving NVT and stable price action near $107K hint that Bitcoin could be preparing for a structural rebound once sell pressure fades.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] Exchange Reserves have plunged to their lowest level in over a decade, dropping to around 2.4 million BTC from 3.5 million in 2020. This is a sign of mounting accumulation by long-term holders and institutions. 

This historic decline suggests a tightening supply that could lay the groundwork for the next major rally. 

While Bitcoin currently trades near the $111K level after multiple rejections at higher resistance zones, on-chain data reveals structural strength beneath the surface, signaling that market fundamentals may be shifting toward long-term bullish territory.

Will $107K become the new launchpad?

Bitcoin’s price has retraced toward the $107K–$111K support zone after facing rejection near $124K. The chart reveals a possible higher-low formation pattern, implying accumulation pressure near this demand region. 

Historically, similar structures have preceded sharp reversals, and buyers appear intent on defending this zone to avoid a deeper correction. 

However, if the price rebounds decisively from this area, the next upside target could retest $124K. 

The setup aligns with previous recovery phases, suggesting that Bitcoin may be preparing for another leg up once short-term sellers are exhausted.

Source: TradingView

Sell-side pressure dominates, but…

The Spot Taker CVD over the past 90 days shows a dominant sell-side presence, with Taker Sell Volume outweighing buy orders. This metric confirms the recent correction phase as traders continue to offload near resistance zones. 

However, despite aggressive sell activity, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable around support, implying that strong buy orders are absorbing the pressure. 

Historically, such CVD patterns tend to reverse when smart money begins re-accumulating at discounted levels. 

This suggests that while short-term selling persists, market resilience remains underpinned by strategic accumulation.

Source: CryptoQuant

NVT Golden Cross recovery signals renewed network vitality

The NVT Golden Cross has climbed by 26.99% to around –0.66, at press time, marking a transition toward neutral territory after prolonged weakness. 

This uptick indicates that transaction activity is strengthening relative to Bitcoin’s valuation, reflecting improving network utility. 

Historically, similar recoveries in the NVT metric have preceded strong price rebounds, particularly when coupled with supply contraction. 

Moreover, the metric’s movement away from deeply negative territory implies that market fundamentals are normalizing, suggesting that Bitcoin’s network health is regaining momentum as investor confidence returns.

Source: CryptoQuant

Is Bitcoin quietly preparing for a new breakout phase?

Bitcoin’s Exchange Reserves at decade lows, resilient price action near $107K, and improving NVT conditions collectively point toward structural bullishness. 

While sellers still dominate short-term activity, underlying accumulation and supply tightening may set the stage for a powerful rebound. 

If history repeats, this combination of low reserves, steady network recovery, and institutional accumulation could mark the early stages of Bitcoin’s next major expansion phase.