Bitcoin Records 11.7% Drop in Q1 2025, Worst First-Quarter Performance Since 2015

TLDR

• Bitcoin fell 11.7% in Q1 2025, its worst first quarter performance since 2015
• CryptoQuant CEO predicts the bear market could last at least six months
• Trump’s new tariff policies triggered market volatility affecting crypto markets
• On-chain metrics show capital entering Bitcoin without corresponding price increases
• Historical data shows mixed outcomes following negative Q1 performances

Bitcoin has recorded its worst first-quarter performance in a decade, dropping 11.7% in Q1 2025 as investors sold amid economic uncertainty and questions about the new Trump administration’s policies. This marks the weakest first quarter for the cryptocurrency since 2015, according to data from NYDIG Research.

The poor performance has sparked debate about where Bitcoin stands in its market cycle. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests the bear market could last at least six months based on on-chain metrics.

#Bitcoin bull cycle is over — here’s why.

There’s a concept in on-chain data called Realized Cap. It works like this: when BTC enters a blockchain wallet, it’s considered a “buy,” and when it leaves, it’s treated as a “sell.” Using this idea, we can estimate an average cost… pic.twitter.com/xDHRin8N1K

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) April 5, 2025

Bitcoin’s recent struggles continued into April, with prices falling to a three-week low of $77,077. The cryptocurrency’s performance ranks 12th out of the past 15 first quarters, highlighting the extent of the current downturn.

Tariff Policies and Market Impact

The decline coincides with President Trump’s introduction of reciprocal tariffs against nearly every country worldwide. This policy move led to a massive $5.4 trillion wipeout in U.S. equities markets over just two days.

The S&P 500 index fell to its lowest level in 11 months. The Nasdaq 100 entered bear market territory due to these tariffs.

While Bitcoin initially outperformed traditional markets, its future performance remains uncertain. The cryptocurrency had gained momentum after Trump’s election victory in November 2024, partly due to his pro-crypto campaign stance.

Under the Trump administration, the crypto sector has gained greater regulatory clarity. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has backed off numerous lawsuits against crypto firms.

However, the recent tariff policies have created new headwinds for all markets. The economic uncertainty has led analysts to raise recession odds, which could test Bitcoin’s role as a “U.S. isolation hedge.”

On-Chain Metrics and Market Dynamics

CryptoQuant’s analysis points to concerning on-chain metrics. Ju highlighted how the current bear market condition is reflected in metrics like market cap and realized cap.

Realized cap determines the actual money entering Bitcoin based on wallet movements. Market cap is based on the most recent price on exchanges.

A bear market typically shows stagnation or decline of market capitalization despite rising realized cap. This indicates capital entering the market without corresponding price increases.

Ju notes that a bull market happens when modest capital drives up prices. The current bearish trend is supported by large capital purchases not driving up Bitcoin’s price.

Historical data suggests a true Bitcoin price reversal typically takes at least six months. This makes a short-term rally unlikely according to CryptoQuant’s analysis.

Historical Patterns and Future Outlook

Bitcoin’s negative Q1 performance doesn’t necessarily predict the entire year’s outcome. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin had similar poor Q1 starts in previous years with mixed results.

In 2020, Bitcoin dropped 9.4% in Q1 due to COVID fears. Yet it ended that year up more than 300%.

However, Q1 losses in 2014, 2018, and 2022 signaled the end of bull runs. These years preceded extended bear markets in the cryptocurrency space.

The last time Bitcoin started the year this poorly was in 2015. This followed a prolonged slump after the 2013 peak and the collapse of Mt. Gox.

In that case, prices recovered modestly over the rest of 2015. Bitcoin then surged in 2016, beginning a new bull cycle.

Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of economic uncertainty will be tested in the months ahead. The cryptocurrency’s response to these challenging market conditions will provide insights into its maturity as an asset class.

Whether this quarter’s performance marks the end of a cycle or a temporary setback remains the central question for crypto investors. Historical patterns offer mixed signals, making the current market particularly difficult to predict.