Bitcoin reclaims $90K, but on-chain data warns the rally may not last

Key Takeaways

Why does Bitcoin’s reclaim of $90K matter?

BTC finally broke back above $90K after days of weakness, but the move lacks strong buy-side support.

What does on-chain data say about the rally’s strength?

Large BTC deposits and falling USDT exchange balances suggest the recovery may not last.

Bitcoin has climbed back above the $90,000 mark after spending days trading below the level, but the recovery may be on far shakier ground than price action suggests.

Source: TradingView

Fresh on-chain data signals that sell pressure is still dominant, raising doubts about whether BTC can hold onto its regained threshold.

Large exchange deposits are rising again — a red flag for stability

New data from CryptoQuant indicate that large Bitcoin deposits now account for approximately 45% of all hourly inflows, a trend that has been steadily increasing since early October.

These aren’t retail-sized transfers — these are wallet clusters that send thousands of BTC at a time.

Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, elevated large-deposit activity is associated with distribution, not accumulation.

When major players transfer coins to exchanges, they are typically positioning themselves to sell or rebalance their risk.

This pattern aligns with BTC’s recent inability to sustain support levels:

• $100K failed
• $95K failed
• $90K briefly broke before today’s reclaim

The upward-sloping trend line in the CryptoQuant chart suggests that sell-side pressure has been steadily increasing, even as spot price attempts to stabilize.

USDT is flowing out of exchanges — weakening Bitcoin’s buy-side support

Glassnode’s stablecoin flows indicate another concern: USDT is leaving exchanges at one of the fastest rates in over a year.

Source: Glassnode

When stablecoins move into exchanges, they create immediate buy-side liquidity.

When they move out, it signals:

• Lower demand
• Weaker spot buying power
• Reduced liquidity to absorb sell pressure
• Higher vulnerability to downside volatility

The chart shows a deep red zone throughout November, suggesting that this rally back above $90K is not backed by strong stablecoin inflows.

Spot demand is thinning — the opposite of what supported Bitcoin’s earlier rallies this year.

A fragile reclaim? BTC needs liquidity before it can trend higher

Taken together, the two datasets paint a cautionary picture:

• More Bitcoin is being sent to exchanges (potential sellers).
• Less USDT is available on exchanges (fewer buyers).
• The rebound lacks the liquidity profile typical of a sustainable trend reversal.

Bitcoin may have reclaimed the $90K psychological level, but without a shift in underlying flows, the move risks fading just like earlier attempts at recovery.

For bulls, the key signals to watch now are:

• A drop in large exchange deposits
• A return of positive USDT net inflows
• A higher low forming above $88K–$89K

Until these appear, the market may remain in a fragile equilibrium — one strong sell wave away from slipping below $90K again.