Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Day MA as Market Odds for Fed Cut Hit 96%

• Bitcoin climbs back above the 50 day and 200 day moving averages after a two month pullback.
• BTC trades below its 52 week resistance band as the yearly range high becomes the next test.
• Polymarket shows a 96% chance of a December Fed cut, shaping risk appetite across crypto.

Bitcoin is executing a technical breakout attempt hours before the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of 2025. Trading at $92,503, the asset has pushed toward the upper resistance band of its yearly channel, buoyed by near-universal expectations of monetary easing. 

The shift follows two months of selling pressure that pushed the asset below its long-term trend levels before conditions began to stabilize in late November.

Related: Crypto Market Stabilizes as Flows Concentrate in BTC and ETH Ahead of Fed Decision

BTC Technical Structure: Reclaiming the Trend

Market data confirms a decisive shift in momentum. After a grueling two-month correction that saw Bitcoin trade below its long-term trendlines, the asset has successfully reclaimed both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (DMA).

The slope of the 200DMA, represented by blue bars in the underlying chart data, turned positive for the first time in a month. Price action has moved above both the 50-day moving average (DMA) and 200-day moving average (DMA), with the 14-day uptrend narrowing the gap between spot levels and long-term trend lines. 

Analysts tracking the 52-week range noted that Bitcoin remains positioned below its upper boundary, which acts as the next major resistance level.

Bitcoin had previously corrected to the $80,000 zone after the October peak. The rebound that followed restored the market’s short-term structure, with the price approaching the 52-week high marker. The orange and light-blue bands that define the yearly range show that BTC continues to operate within defined volatility parameters despite the recent drawdown.

However, as of press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,503.14, up by 2.55% over the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.846 trillion and daily trading volume of $65.5 billion.

Fed Expectations Anchor Risk Sentiment Ahead of December Meeting

Interest-rate markets have shifted toward an easing outlook. Polymarket data shows a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, following similar moves in September and October. A cut would take the federal funds rate into the 3.50%–3.75% range even though regulators are working with incomplete labor and inflation data due to this year’s government shutdown.

Axel Adler Jr. commented that the November employment and inflation releases will not be available before the meeting, noting that the Fed may still opt to wait. 

However, current pricing indicates that traders assume a third consecutive cut. Lower borrowing costs typically ease financial conditions and may influence demand for risk-sensitive assets.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Buyers Hold Channel Support as Fed Decision Drives Next Breakout Attempt