Bitcoin Reclaims 50-Day EMA—$120K Surge in Sight?

Key Points:

• Bitcoin maintains strong support above 50-day EMA, signaling possible breakout toward $120,000.
• Exchange flows hit decade-low, suggesting rising accumulation and long-term holding behavior among investors.
• On-chain metrics show stable consolidation; BTC bull cycle remains intact with limited correction volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing renewed momentum after reclaiming its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). As of press time, Bitcoin price trades at $106,918, up 1.37% over the last 24 hours and 1.52% over the past seven days. Analysts are closely watching the current trend, with several pointing to a possible move toward the $120,000 level.

CryptoQuant analyst İbrahim Coşar explained that historically, when BTC drops below the 50-day EMA and quickly reclaims it, the market often sees a short-term rally between 10% and 20%. Over the past three days, BTC has maintained daily closes above this technical line, suggesting strong short-term support.

Bitcoin Price Holds Above Key Technical Level

The 50-day EMA remains a widely observed indicator for tracking trend direction. During bull markets, it often acts as a support level. Bitcoin’s ability to regain this line after briefly trading below it may signal the beginning of a new upward phase.

Analyst İbrahim Coşar stated, 

“BTC typically experiences a sharp rally of approximately 10% to 20% after reclaiming the 50-day EMA.” 

Based on current price behavior, some traders are now watching for a potential push toward the $120,000 mark—provided external factors remain stable.

Notably, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that since the November 2022 bull cycle began, Bitcoin has only seen two deep corrections—both followed by quick recoveries. Current drawdown from recent highs stands at just -4.7%, with the weekly simple moving average (SMA) drawdown at -7%, indicating a stable consolidation phase between $100,000 and $106,000.

Adler added, 

“The sequence of deep drawdown → accumulation → new impulse has been repeatedly confirmed in this cycle.” 

Strong support near $96,000 and reduced pullback volatility suggest the market continues to mature while retaining upside momentum.

Exchange Flows Signal Accumulation and Liquidity Shift

Data also shows a decline in Bitcoin movement on centralized exchanges. Adler highlighted that the average flow volume (inflow plus outflow) has dropped to 40,000 BTC per day—the lowest in ten years. This suggests that a large portion of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from trading platforms, possibly pointing to growing long-term holding behavior.

At the same time, the inflow/outflow 30-day moving average ratio remains elevated. This ratio, comparable to early 2023 levels, indicates ongoing demand for Bitcoin despite reduced exchange activity.

Meanwhile, while technical and on-chain trends remain favorable, analysts continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely. Escalations involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran could inject sudden volatility into the market.