Bitcoin Rebounds Above $104K as Institutional Interest Resumes Despite Recent ETF Outflows

Quick Take

• BTC trading at $104,635.20 (up 2.8% in 24h)
• Recovery from $100K support test amid $1.3B ETF outflows earlier this week
• Price action testing 20-day moving average resistance at $108,117
• Traditional market correlations remain elevated with Fed policy uncertainty

Market Events Driving Bitcoin Price Movement

Bitcoin’s recent price action has been dominated by institutional flows and macro uncertainty following this week’s test of the crucial $100,000 psychological support level. The primary catalyst was significant outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which experienced $1.3 billion in net redemptions over four consecutive trading days, creating sustained selling pressure on BTC price action.

The Federal Reserve’s ongoing policy uncertainty has amplified volatility, with a stronger dollar adding additional headwinds to risk assets including Bitcoin. The selloff was further exacerbated by $1 billion in long liquidations and heightened options hedging activity, creating a cascade effect that pushed Bitcoin down from previous highs above $110,000.

On a more positive note, institutional adoption continues to advance with BBK’s partnership announcement with Binance to integrate crypto services into traditional banking infrastructure. While pending regulatory approval, this development signals growing acceptance of digital assets within established financial institutions, providing a constructive longer-term backdrop for BTC price appreciation.

BTC Technical Analysis: Testing Key Moving Average Resistance

Price Action Context

Bitcoin’s current position at $104,635 represents a meaningful bounce from the $100,000 support test, placing BTC price roughly 3% below the critical 20-day moving average at $108,117. The cryptocurrency is trading below most key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $112,016 and 200-day SMA at $110,272 both serving as overhead resistance levels.

Trading volume on Binance spot markets reached $1.36 billion over the past 24 hours, indicating sustained institutional interest despite the recent volatility. The bounce from $100K suggests this psychological level continues to attract significant buying interest from longer-term holders.

Key Technical Indicators

The RSI reading of 42.85 places Bitcoin technical analysis in neutral territory, providing room for upside movement without entering overbought conditions. The MACD remains bearish at -2,607, though the histogram shows signs of potential momentum stabilization.

Bollinger Bands indicate BTC price is trading in the lower half of its recent range, with the current position at 0.28 suggesting oversold conditions may be correcting. The daily ATR of $3,929 reflects elevated but manageable volatility levels for institutional participants.

Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin Traders

Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)

• Resistance: $108,117 (20-day moving average and key technical barrier)
• Support: $100,124 (Bollinger Band lower boundary and psychological support)

Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios

A decisive break above the 20-day moving average could target the $112,016 level (50-day SMA), with potential continuation toward $116,400 resistance. Conversely, failure to hold above $100,000 could trigger additional selling toward the strong support zone near $98,944, where significant buying interest previously emerged.

BTC Correlation Analysis

Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets has increased during this period of Federal Reserve uncertainty, with the cryptocurrency showing sensitivity to dollar strength and broader market sentiment. The recent ETF outflows highlight how institutional flows now significantly impact BTC price discovery, creating new correlation patterns with equity market volatility.

Gold’s performance as an alternative store of value has provided some context for Bitcoin’s recent weakness, with both assets facing pressure from rising real yields and dollar strength.

Trading Outlook: Bitcoin Near-Term Prospects

Bullish Case

Recapture of the 20-day moving average at $108,117 would signal renewed institutional confidence and could catalyze a move toward $112,000-$116,000. Stabilization in ETF flows and any dovish Federal Reserve signals would provide additional tailwinds for BTC price recovery.

Bearish Case

Failure to maintain above $100,000 support risks triggering additional algorithmic selling and long liquidations. Continued ETF outflows or hawkish Fed commentary could pressure Bitcoin toward the $95,000-$98,000 zone where stronger technical support exists.

Risk Management

Current volatility suggests stop-losses below $99,500 for long positions, with profit-taking appropriate near $108,000 resistance. Position sizing should account for the elevated ATR reading and potential for gap moves around Federal Reserve announcements.

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