Bitcoin’s rebound above $100,000 signals potential recovery after a 25% drop from its October peak, driven by technical factors like spot inflows and short-covering, though analysts stress it’s not yet a fundamental resurgence. Historical data from CryptoQuant shows similar loss-supply spikes often precede rallies, but sustained on-chain accumulation is needed for longevity.
Bitcoin bounced from $99,600 to $103,400, per CoinGecko data, reviving trader hopes amid market volatility.
Supply of coins held at a loss reached 28.1%, according to CryptoQuant, a level historically tied to price reversals.
Analysts like Shawn Young from MEXC Research warn the uptick lacks long-term conviction, needing holder accumulation for true recovery.
Bitcoin rebound above $100,000 sparks recovery talks in 2025 crypto market. Explore technical drivers, expert insights, and risks for sustainable gains. Stay informed on Bitcoin’s path forward today.
What is Bitcoin’s Rebound Above $100,000?
Bitcoin’s rebound above $100,000 refers to the cryptocurrency’s recent price recovery from a low of $99,600 to around $103,400, following a sharp sell-off that erased 25% from its October peak. This movement, tracked by CoinGecko data, has sparked optimism among traders but is largely viewed as a technical bounce rather than a shift in underlying fundamentals. On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant indicate 28.1% of Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss, a condition that has historically preceded significant rallies.
Is This Bitcoin Recovery Sustainable?
The sustainability of Bitcoin’s rebound above $100,000 hinges on several factors, including consistent accumulation by long-term holders and stabilized market funding rates. On-chain analyst Willy Woo noted in a recent statement that liquidity behind Bitcoin is recovering, potentially leading to price confirmation within two weeks. Historical precedents support this: CryptoQuant data shows a 27% loss-supply spike in April 2025 preceded a 70% rally, while a similar event in September 2024 triggered a 125% surge. However, Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, cautions that the current uptick is driven by spot inflows and leveraged short-covering, not a resurgence of long-term investor conviction. “What we are looking at right now is a technically driven rebound,” Young stated, emphasizing the need for broader on-chain signals to confirm an enduring bottom. Without these, the bounce could prove temporary, exposing the market to further downside risks in a cooling cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused Bitcoin’s recent drop below $100,000 before the rebound?
Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 stemmed from a broader market sell-off, erasing 25% from its October peak and pushing loss-held supply to 28.1%, per CryptoQuant data. Macroeconomic pressures, including ongoing economic uncertainties, contributed to the decline, leaving traders wary of prolonged volatility in 2025.
Will Bitcoin hold above $103,000 for a full recovery?
Bitcoin holding above $103,000 on a weekly candlestick close could signal a mid-term accumulation range toward 2026, according to Jiehan Chen, Operations Onboarding Lead Analyst at Schroders. However, experts like Alex Thorn from Galaxy Digital have tempered expectations, lowering year-end targets to $120,000 amid choppy macro conditions.
Key Takeaways
- Technical Bounce in Play: The rebound above $100,000 is fueled by spot inflows and short-covering, but lacks fundamental backing for now.
- Historical Precedents: Loss-supply metrics at 28.1% have often led to rallies, as seen in April 2025 (70%) and September 2024 (125%).
- Macro Watch: Positive catalysts like resolving government shutdowns could stabilize the market; monitor for on-chain holder accumulation.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rebound above $100,000 offers a glimmer of hope in the 2025 crypto landscape, yet experts like Shawn Young from MEXC Research and Jiehan Chen from Schroders highlight the technical nature of this uptick and the need for sustained accumulation to achieve a true recovery. With tempered forecasts from figures such as Alex Thorn at Galaxy Digital pointing to a $120,000 year-end target, the market remains poised for choppiness unless macroeconomic catalysts emerge. Investors should track on-chain data closely and consider strategic positioning for potential mid-term gains into 2026.