Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs, but only compared to the dollar…

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency in the sector, has reached new all-time highs against the dollar, hitting the record level of approximately 112,000 dollars on May 22, 2025. This result is significant not only from a numerical standpoint but also because it further consolidates Bitcoin’s central role in the global financial market. 

However, it is interesting to note that compared to the euro Bitcoin has not yet reached new all-time highs, due to the recent appreciation of the European currency against the dollar, linked to global macroeconomic dynamics.

Bitcoin Rally: the reasons behind the new bull run

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After a relatively stable period that suggested a possible phase of consolidation, the recent surge of Bitcoin has surprised many analysts. Among the factors that have supported this growth are the persistent global economic uncertainty (which drives investors towards alternative safe-haven assets), the growing interest of traditional financial institutions (which lends credibility and solidity to Bitcoin), and the increasing number of companies that, following the example of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), have decided to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, among which stand out Tesla, Square, Marathon Digital Holdings, and GameStop. 

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To these elements is added the renewed enthusiasm of small retail investors, who often anticipate or amplify market trends, but above all the fact that the total capitalization of Bitcoin has exceeded 2.1 trillion dollars, placing it in 7th place among the most capitalized assets in the world.

In the face of this scenario, a crucial question arises spontaneously: how long will this rise last and what factors will determine the future direction of the price of BTC? This article will attempt to examine the main reasons behind the recent rally, market reactions, and possible developments for the coming months.

Experts’ analysis: bull scenarios and caution signals

The record performances of Bitcoin have divided analysts into two main schools of thought. On one side, there are the more optimistic ones who foresee further significant rises, hypothesizing values even exceeding 250,000 dollars by the end of the year. Among the reasons for this positive outlook are the growing adoption by institutional investors, the spread of new financial instruments linked to Bitcoin, such as ETFs and structured funds, and increasingly clear and favorable regulations for investment in the crypto world.

On the other hand, there are those who instead urge caution, highlighting significant similarities between the current price trend and that observed in the last quarter of 2021, just before the crash of over 70% that occurred in 2022. According to this more cautious perspective, the market could soon face an important correction.

Despite these differences in viewpoints, analysts agree on the importance of monitoring certain key technical levels, such as the psychological threshold of 120,000 dollars, whose breakthrough or rejection could clearly indicate the future direction of the market. Other fundamental elements are global monetary policies, international regulations, and the emotional sentiment of investors, which has always been a decisive element in bull peaks and bear corrections.

Bitcoin and predictive models: how high can it rise by the end of 2025?

If we want to make predictions, there are several approaches that can give an idea of the potential price development in the coming months. Taking for example the predictive charts provided by Bitbo.io, in Figure 2 you can see the forecast for the end of 2025 based on 4 different price models. This forecast ranges between $99,836 and $367,275, a rather wide range but definitely bull-oriented compared to the current price of about $107,000.

Another interesting chart is the one in Figure 3, which shows the trend of Bitcoin’s price in the various “eras” (defined as 700 days before and after each Halving) relative to the minimum of the era itself. It can be seen how the bull markets have always started several weeks after the completion of a Halving (day 0), and how in the current era, the fourth, there is still room for a potential rise towards new highs.

On the other hand, an important aspect that emerges from this chart is related to how the various bull markets of Bitcoin from the first to the third era have occurred with increasingly smaller multiples compared to the cycle’s minimum, demonstrating how Bitcoin has matured over time, reducing its volatility. This could therefore suggest that even if there will be a new high in this era, it will not be as striking as in the past.

Risks and challenges for Bitcoin between regulations and market psychology

Despite the current positive climate, it is crucial for investors to also consider the potential risks that could influence the price of Bitcoin in the near future.

A primary challenge concerns the regulatory response of global financial authorities. A growing institutional interest could lead to greater regulatory scrutiny, creating temporary volatility and uncertainty in the markets. However, clear and adequate regulations could at the same time promote greater price stability and confidence from investors in general.

Another relevant aspect concerns the global economic trend. If so far economic uncertainty has favored Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, leading it to be defined as the digital equivalent of gold, any sudden changes in the monetary policies of major central banks could trigger profit-taking and sudden corrections.

The psychological factor of investors remains crucial. Despite the record price of Bitcoin, the data related to the search trends of the word Bitcoin on Google still show relatively low levels compared to previous price peaks, indicating that the market may not have yet reached the phase of generalized euphoria. This element suggests that there might still be room for further bull runs from now until the end of 2025.

Final considerations and the importance of a cautious and informed approach 

The recent highs reached by Bitcoin confirm its central role in the financial markets, outlining promising prospects for further price increases. The growing institutional interest, economic uncertainty, and a possible clearer regulation represent crucial factors for further positive developments.

However, especially for short-term investors, it is important to remain cautious and attentive to the risks associated with market volatility. For a correct assessment of future developments, it is crucial to monitor the international regulatory evolution, the strategies of major financial institutions and leading companies holding bitcoin, the decisions of central banks, and market sentiment.

As always, navigating with caution and awareness will remain essential to make the most of the opportunities offered by the crypto market in the months to come.

Greetings and good trading!

Andrea Unger