Bitcoin price is approaching a critical trendline breakout that could trigger major growth in the altcoin market, according to analyst Dan Gambardello.
In his recent analysis, Gambardello looks at Bitcoin’s weekly chart patterns focusing on the RSI momentum oscillator breaking a multi-month trendline.
The analyst points to historical patterns showing that when Bitcoin breaks above such trendlines, it generally leads to substantial price increases.
Bitcoin Price Weekly RSI Signals Potential Breakout
Bitcoin’s price is currently testing a multi-month trendline on the RSI momentum oscillator on the weekly chart.
According to Gambardello, this technical development could be a major indicator for Bitcoin’s next move.
The analyst points out that historically when Bitcoin breaks above such RSI trendlines, it has led to major price increases.
Looking at patterns dating back to 2018, Bitcoin price has performed well after breaking upward through these momentum trendlines.
Gambardello points out two extremely significant things to watch over the next several days. One is that there is still approximately six days in the current weekly candle.
That gives it very strong support and is a very strong weekly close needed for confirmation of this continuation in momentum.
Second, Bitcoin needs to break above the yellow lower high trendline on the RSI indicator and then also close above the moving average on the RSI indicator.
In the price chart analysis, Gambardello defines $92,000 as the most important level.
He feels that if Bitcoin can close some weekly candles far above this level, it will go against bearish sentiment and be proof of the bullish trend.
This level coincides with the 20-week moving average, which in past market cycles has been the most important indicator.
The analyst compared current market conditions and what was seen in the previous bear market.
He noted that in the previous bear market, Bitcoin never approached significant closes above the 20-week moving average.
He also points to differences in monetary policy cycles.
Also, he adds that, unlike the previous bear market with quantitative tightening, the current situation is approaching the point where quantitative tightening will decrease.
Short-term caution despite bullish indicators
Although the weekly chart indicates good signs, Gambardello cautions in the short run since Bitcoin price is immediately resisted by levels.
The daily chart indicates that Bitcoin is testing a downtrend line that stretches from the January swing high over several months.
Bitcoin price is presently struggling at the 50-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average just above at $87,000.
This creates a solid resistance zone that Bitcoin needs to break through before a larger breakout can be guaranteed.
Gambardello outlines several possibilities for Bitcoin price action over the next few days.
If there is resistance, then Bitcoin might see a rejection from the current levels or after testing the $87,000 level.
In this case, the next level of support would be the 20-day moving average at $82,000-$83,000.
If the 20-day moving average does not serve as support, Bitcoin can find further support at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of $76,000 to $78,000.
This region also aligns with the multi-year neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern, which Gambardello reports has also been serving as a throwback level.
For the bull scenario to happen, Bitcoin price would need to begin by closing a daily candle above the 200-day moving average at $87,000.
This would set the stage for a push toward the critical $92,000 level, which Gambardello emphasizes is crucial from both a macro multi-cycle perspective and for confirming the bullish signals on the weekly RSI.
Altcoin Correlation With Global M2 Money Supply
Gambardello draws attention to the relationship between altcoin performance and global M2 money supply trends.
His analysis shows a strong historical correlation between increases in global liquidity and crypto market movements.
The analyst examines past data points where M2 global money supply began trending upward and the subsequent reactions in altcoin prices.
He identifies a pattern where altcoin prices typically break above their 20-day moving averages within a specific timeframe after M2 money supply begins to increase.
Looking at recent history, Gambardello notes varying lag times between M2 supply increases and altcoin price movements.
In one instance, there was a 22-day gap between the M2 uptrend and altcoins breaking above their 20-day moving average.
Another historical example showed a 26-day delay, while an earlier case from 2023 displayed just a 5-day lag.
Currently, altcoin charts are testing their 20-day moving averages approximately 23 days after the latest uptick in the M2 money supply indicator.
Based on this pattern, Gambardello suggests a breakout could occur imminently or closer to May.
The 20-day moving average serves as both a potential breakout level and a caution area.
If altcoins fail to break through this level, they could face rejection and dip further.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/04/15/bitcoin-price-breakout-from-this-key-level-will-cause-altcoins-to-go-nuclear-analyst/