Bitcoin Price Will Hit $200,000 in 2025, MicroStrategy Will Outperform: Bernstein

Despite the asset’s recent weakness, Bitcoin’s price is poised to hit $200,000 over the next year-plus, according to the global investment firm AllianceBernstein.

In a Thursday research note, the firm cited Bitcoin’s “supply being constrained” amid “unprecedented Bitcoin demand” from spot ETFs as two bullish factors. Previously, Bernstein estimated in March that Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by the end of 2025.

Bernstein’s upward revision Thursday coincides with headwinds in the crypto market, sparking millions of dollars in liquidated crypto positions as Bitcoin’s price fell to $65,000. After its price peaked around $73,000 in March, the asset has struggled to regain all-time highs.

Regardless, Bernstein analysts anticipate that spot Bitcoin ETFs will have $190 billion in assets under management (AUM) by the end of 2025. So far, the class of products approved in January has amassed $53 billion in AUM across nearly a dozen offerings, per CoinGlass.

Bernstein’s bullish Bitcoin call was housed within analysis for MicroStrategy, the American software firm and largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Bernstein highlighted the firm as an “active-leveraged” bet on Bitcoin compared to the passive nature of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Announcing it would sell more debt to buy Bitcoin earlier in the day, MicroStrategy’s stash of 214,400 Bitcoin is worth around $14.3 billion, as of this writing. Bernstein analysts noted that MicroStrategy is distinct as the only firm leveraging capital markets to specifically buy Bitcoin.

“We believe MSTR’s long-term convertible debt strategy allows it enough time to gain from Bitcoin upside, with limited liquidation risk to its Bitcoin on balance sheet,” Bernstein’s analysts wrote, giving the firm co-founded by Michael Saylor a rating of “outperform.”

Shares in MicroStrategy have surged 116% year-to-date to $1,484. In March, as Bitcoin’s price set a new all-time high, the firm’s stock price climbed as high as $2,000 before dipping down.

The expected increase in Bitcoin’s price can be traced to a four-year cycle the asset has historically followed, Bernstein analysts wrote. That cycle started anew, the firm said, when the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined was slashed in half in April as part of the so-called halving.

As spot Bitcoin ETFs continue accumulating inflows, Bernstein wrote that the activity is “setting the foundation for the breakout phase” in Bitcoin’s price. That could give way to a so-called hype phase, analysts wrote, where “investors imagine unrealistic price targets” amid mass interest.

Looking beyond 2025, Bernstein analysts posited the cryptocurrency could touch $500,000 by the end of 2029, followed by a lull before Bitcoin tops $1,000,000 by the end of 2033.

Edited by Andrew Hayward