Bitcoin Price Trump Pump Mirrors 2019’s Xi Pump—Will BTC Crash?

Bitcoin price rally to $95,000 has drawn comparisons to the infamous “Xi pump” of 2019. Analysts are debating whether the surge, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s crypto reserve announcement, will follow the same path—an initial pump followed by a swift decline.

Trump’s Crypto Reserve Fuels Bitcoin Price Rally

Bitcoin’s price saw a sharp rise over the weekend, with prices briefly touching $95,000 before encountering resistance. The surge came after Trump revealed plans to establish a strategic digital asset reserve, hinting at government involvement in Bitcoin and Ether holdings.

Despite this bullish trigger, the rally struggled to hold momentum. Bitcoin’s weekly chart was on track to close below $90,000 for the first time since Nov. 2024. However, last-minute buying pressure pushed BTC’s closing price to $94,222, forming a doji candle—a sign of market indecision.

Cold Blooded Shiller, an anonymous crypto analyst, compared this price movement to the “Xi pump” of Oct. 2019. That rally was fueled by China’s President Xi Jinping’s endorsement of blockchain technology. Bitcoin soared in response but quickly lost its gains as China intensified its crackdown on crypto activities.

“The similarities are undeniable,” Cold Blooded Shiller stated. “In 2019, traders realized the pump was a short squeeze, and within 30 days, Bitcoin revisited new lows.”

Will $90K Become Resistance or Support?

Bitcoin’s price action remains fragile, with traders questioning whether $90,000 will act as support or resistance. On March 3, BTC dropped from $93,700 to $89,250 in under an hour, erasing half of its previous day’s gains. The sharp sell-off coincided with a 1% drop in the S&P 500, triggered by China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.

Trump’s announcement over the weekend generated hype, but investors quickly tempered their expectations. Analysts pointed out that the strategic reserve plan requires congressional approval, and details on its execution remain unclear.

Aurelie Barthere, a principal research analyst at blockchain analytics firm Nansen, previously warned that Bitcoin’s rally to $94,500 was unsustainable. She noted that macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade tensions and monetary policies, could dampen Bitcoin’s momentum.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) did not add to its Bitcoin holdings last week, contrary to traders’ expectations. Some had hoped Saylor’s firm would “buy the dip,” but Strategy remained inactive, leaving the market with fewer institutional buy orders to support BTC’s price.

Bitcoin Remains in Distribution Mode

Data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin remains in a distribution phase rather than an accumulation cycle. The short-term holder (STH) cost basis dropped below 1 after initially rising above $92,700, indicating that traders are struggling to maintain profitability.

Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score has stayed below 0.5 for 58 consecutive days, signaling prolonged selling pressure. Glassnode’s analysts noted that these phases typically last between 57 to 65 days, and there is no confirmed transition to an accumulation phase yet.

“Large entities are still in a net distribution regime,” Glassnode stated. “The recent rally lacks strong institutional support.”

Meanwhile, crypto traders are keeping an eye on BTC’s next move. Magus, a well-known market analyst, stated that bulls must reclaim $103,000 to confirm a bullish breakout. He warned that failing to hold $90,000 as support could lead to further declines.

Bitcoin Price Faces a Defining Week

Bitcoin’s future price action hinges on key factors, including macroeconomic developments and Trump’s upcoming crypto summit on March 7. If Bitcoin follows the 2019 pattern, traders could see further downside in the coming weeks.

While the Trump pump has injected excitement into the market, analysts remain cautious. BTC needs to prove its strength by holding key support levels and attracting genuine accumulation. If buyers fail to step in, Bitcoin could be staring at another price correction similar to the Xi pump’s aftermath.