Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of recovery as the US government shutdown, now the longest in history, nears resolution.
Traders are closely watching BTC around $103K as historical patterns and technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency could be preparing for a significant rebound. Market sentiment is bolstered by macroeconomic signals and renewed institutional interest, hinting at potential upside over the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Price Stabilizes Near $103K
Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,911, up 3.30% over the past 24 hours, according to Brave New Coin data. The cryptocurrency remains below recent highs near $110K, but technical signals suggest that BTC may be forming a foundation for renewed upward momentum. Volume trends indicate growing accumulation around the $103K level, often a precursor to a broader rally.
Bitcoin shows early signs of a new uptrend, building volume around $103K with $105K as the initial target. Source: SatochiTrader on TradingView
Crypto analyst SatochiTrader highlighted that BTC has established a short-term higher low and is attempting to form a rising channel. “If Bitcoin maintains momentum and volume continues to rise, this could be the first stage of a new uptrend,” the analyst wrote, pointing to $105K as the first key resistance target and a potential move toward $110K later.
Historical Shutdowns Hint at 50% Upside
Market observers note that BTC has historically rebounded strongly following US government shutdowns. Analyst @AltcoinGordon pointed out: “The US government shutdown could end this week. Last time it ended, $BTC rallied 50% in just 3 months. Bears will be punished again.”
Bitcoin could surge 50% as the US government shutdown nears its end, punishing the bears. Source: @AltcoinGordon via X
During the 2018–2019 shutdown, BTC fell roughly 20% before climbing 50% in the next three months. While past performance is not a guarantee, these historical trends provide context for traders considering potential post-shutdown gains.
Investors are also factoring in macroeconomic conditions. With market volatility elevated, BTC’s risk-on profile may attract both retail and institutional investors seeking returns outside traditional safe-haven assets.
Technical Indicators Signal Early Bullish Momentum
Analyst @AO_btc_analyst noted that the US10Y*CN10Y Stochastic RSI recently crossed upward, an indicator historically aligned with BTC bull runs in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2020. “Every time this stochastic RSI crossed upwards, BTC followed with a major rally. The recent cross signals a potential move toward $45,000+,” the analyst said.
Stochastic RSI signals a new Bitcoin bull run as the indicator crosses upward, hinting at medium-to-long-term gains. Source: @AO_btc_analyst via X
While the indicator is correlation-based rather than predictive, it highlights how global bond yield dynamics can influence BTC. Technical analysis, combined with rising buy volumes near support, suggests a potential continuation toward $105K–$110K if momentum holds.
Institutional Flows and Market Sentiment
Institutional activity in BTC continues to strengthen the market outlook. Inflows into bitcoin ETFs, including Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), point to growing long-term demand. Analysts note that these flows provide liquidity and reinforce support levels during periods of heightened volatility.
Investor sentiment reflects cautious optimism. While short-term volatility is expected as markets react to macro developments, BTC’s technical structure, historical recovery patterns, and institutional engagement point to a potential bullish phase in the near term. Traders are focusing on key support around $103K and resistance near $105K–$110K as the next critical levels.
Looking Ahead: BTC Could Retest $110K if Momentum Holds
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s recovery will likely be shaped by post-shutdown liquidity conditions, technical validation, and continued institutional interest. If momentum sustains above $103K, BTC could retest $110K, with some analysts projecting a potential post-shutdown extension toward $120K over the next few months.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $103,911, up 3.30% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Price via Brave New Coin
Market watchers emphasize that macro conditions, ETF flows, and volume trends will be crucial for confirming a broader uptrend. For now, BTC traders are observing early bullish signals, suggesting the cryptocurrency may be entering the first stage of a significant post-shutdown rally.