Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Holds $119K Support Despite U.S. Policy Uncertainty—What’s Next?

Bitcoin price today is holding steady above the $119,000 mark, with traders weighing hotter U.S. inflation data, shifting Federal Reserve expectations, and fresh policy signals from Washington.

The flagship cryptocurrency’s resilience comes after a sharp retreat from its recent $124,000 peak, as investors await key retail sales figures that could determine BTC’s next major move.

Market Overview: Bitcoin Technical Analysis Shows Key Support Intact

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $119,164, staging a modest rebound from earlier lows after dipping to close a CME futures gap at $117,600. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin technical analysis shows the price respecting an ascending channel that has been in place since early August.

Bitcoin price chart shows bearish divergence and an overbought RSI, with key supports at $112K and $103–105K range. Source: VIAQUANT on TradingView

The 50-SMA at $118,753 continues to act as dynamic support, while the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $117,335 remains a structural floor. Momentum indicators are showing early signs of stabilization—the Bitcoin RSI indicator has bounced from the mid-40s, suggesting easing selling pressure, and the MACD histogram is flattening out, signaling that bearish momentum may be losing steam.

A sustained close above $119,300 could pave the way for another test of the $123,236 resistance zone, with a potential upside extension toward $126,200. A breakout above that level could open the door to the psychological $130K target in the near term.

Macro Drivers: Inflation Data and Fed Policy Weigh on Sentiment

The latest Bitcoin news today centers on the hotter-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which jumped 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year—well above consensus forecasts. This surge in wholesale prices suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky, complicating the Federal Reserve’s roadmap for interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin’s sweep of its previous all-time high cleared buy-side liquidity and signaled a potential shift toward targeting sell-side liquidity. Source: TehThomas on TradingView

Earlier optimism for aggressive monetary easing had been one of the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s recent rally. However, after the PPI surprise, CME FedWatch Tool data now shows traders pricing in a 92.6% chance of the Fed trimming rates to 4.00%–4.25% at its September meeting—a more cautious outlook compared to earlier in the month.

The next macro test will come with the U.S. retail sales report. Analysts expect a 0.7% monthly gain, which would be the strongest reading since March. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance, potentially pressuring BTC in the short term.

Bitcoin Whale Activity and Halving 2025 Outlook

On-chain data shows steady Bitcoin whale alert activity around the $118K–$119K range, suggesting large holders are accumulating during dips. This comes as traders position for the Bitcoin halving 2025, which is expected to reduce miner rewards and potentially tighten supply—a historically bullish catalyst for long-term price appreciation.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $119,164, down 1.38% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

Market strategists note that Bitcoin’s pullbacks following record highs have been shrinking in magnitude throughout 2025. The January peak at $109K saw a 30% correction, May’s $112K high led to a 12% drop, and July’s $123K top resulted in only a 9% retracement. The latest 7% dip from August’s $124K high may signal growing market resilience ahead of the halving cycle.

Looking Forward: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on Data and Momentum

With Bitcoin price today holding firm above $119K support, the next move could be decided within days as U.S. retail sales data and Fed policy expectations unfold. A bullish breakout above $126K could put $130K back in sight, while a drop below $117,300 risks exposing deeper support near $113,650.

For long-term investors, the broader trend—supported by whale accumulation, the upcoming Bitcoin halving 2025, and growing institutional interest—keeps the Bitcoin long-term outlook tilted toward further gains. In the short term, however, macroeconomic headlines will likely dictate whether BTC consolidates, rallies, or tests lower levels.