Bitcoin Price Stagnation May Reflect Long-Term Holder Sales Amid Growing Institutional Treasury Demand

• Long-term Bitcoin holders have been offloading their positions to institutional investors since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, contributing to price stagnation despite growing corporate interest.

• This dynamic has created a unique market environment where new Bitcoin treasury companies are absorbing supply from long-term holders, potentially setting the stage for a sustained accumulation phase.

• According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, “The amount of BTC acquired in the last two months by this cohort has completely consumed all of the BTC unloaded by LTHs over the last 1.5 years,” highlighting a significant shift in Bitcoin ownership patterns.

Long-term Bitcoin holders selling to institutions since spot ETFs launched has kept prices range-bound, while new treasury companies drive fresh demand in 2024.

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Institutional Accumulation and the Bitcoin Treasury Flywheel

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has catalyzed a fresh wave of institutional interest, particularly from Bitcoin treasury companies. These entities are actively accumulating BTC, creating what Charles Edwards describes as a “huge flywheel buying frenzy.” This phenomenon is gradually overshadowing the initial excitement surrounding ETFs themselves.

Edwards’ analysis reveals that the six-month holder cohort—representing newer institutional buyers—has surged dramatically. This group’s acquisitions have effectively absorbed the supply released by long-term holders (LTHs), who have been offloading their Bitcoin positions since the ETF launch. The net effect is a market where institutional demand is stabilizing supply-side pressures, potentially laying the groundwork for future price appreciation.

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Recent entrants into the Bitcoin treasury space include diverse corporate players such as Cardone Capital, ProCap Ventures, Panther Metals, and Green Minerals. Their involvement underscores a growing trend of companies integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets as a strategic asset, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

Market Sentiment and Short-Term Profit Taking Ahead of Tariff Deadlines

Despite the institutional accumulation trend, short-term market sentiment remains cautious. Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE exchange, notes that traders are currently engaging in profit-taking ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, anticipating potential volatility if trade negotiations falter. This hedging behavior reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainties impacting crypto markets.

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Mei also points out that while corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption is increasing, accumulation is a gradual process. He expects market stabilization over the coming year as more long-term holders enter the market, balancing out short-term fluctuations.

Similarly, Han Xu from HashKey Capital highlights that investors are closely monitoring upcoming US macroeconomic data and policy developments, including trade deal updates and the progress of the federal budget bill. These factors represent key catalysts that could either reinforce or disrupt the current bullish momentum.

Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Price Action Amid Growing Institutional Demand

Bitcoin’s price has remained largely sideways since surpassing the $100,000 mark in early May 2024, oscillating between $102,000 and $110,000. This consolidation phase reflects a market digesting recent inflows and awaiting clearer macroeconomic signals.

Notably, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $3.2 billion in inflows over the past two weeks without any outflow days, indicating robust and sustained institutional interest. Concurrently, the number of Bitcoin treasury companies continues to rise, further supporting demand fundamentals.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $108,750, encountering resistance that has so far prevented a breakout above this level. Market watchers are keenly observing whether Bitcoin can overcome this barrier to resume its upward trajectory.

Conclusion

The interplay between long-term holder selling and institutional accumulation via spot ETFs and treasury companies has created a nuanced Bitcoin market environment in 2024. While price action remains range-bound, the growing presence of corporate investors absorbing supply suggests a potential foundation for future growth. Market participants should monitor macroeconomic developments and institutional activity closely, as these factors will likely dictate Bitcoin’s next significant move.