The price of Bitcoin (BTC) could be primed for a significant drop in the coming weeks, according to a recent analysis from crypto market expert Rekt Capital.
Rekt Capital examined historical data and chart patterns to assess the likelihood of a potential plunge for the leading cryptocurrency. In a tweet, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin tends to see double-digit percentage drawdowns in August and September, implying further declines may be imminent.
Looking Back at Worst-Case Scenarios
To gauge downside risks, Rekt Capital first analyzed previous years with the steepest August declines. Currently, in 2023, Bitcoin’s price has fallen 16% since August. The worst August drawdowns in history were 17% in 2014 and 18% in 2015.
If Bitcoin were to drop 18% this August, like in 2015, that would bring the price down to approximately $24,700, according to Rekt Capital’s math. However, September drawdowns also need to be factored in.
According to Rekt Capital, September has tended to be another weak month for Bitcoin, with single-digit percentage losses being common. Assuming an additional 10% drop in September, that would put Bitcoin around $22,200.
This aligns with Rekt Capital’s target of $22,000, which comes from measured technical projections related to Bitcoin’s recent “double top” chart pattern. This pattern points to further downside momentum ahead.
Still Awaiting Confirmation
However, Rekt Capital stopped short of an explicit Bitcoin price forecast, noting the analysis depends on the historical patterns playing out similarly. Until confirmed breakdowns occur, the analysis remains hypothetical.
Nonetheless, Rekt Capital’s risk/reward assessment provides useful context on the potential vulnerabilities in the market during a historically turbulent time of year for Bitcoin. With the Fed’s tightening cycle ongoing, further crypto volatility is to be expected.
Source: https://coinpedia.org/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-prediction-for-september-will-btc-price-drop-to-22k-coming-month/