Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can It Clear $130,000 By August?

Is a $130,000 Bitcoin price prediction by the end of July a realistic one considering the market’s latest performance?

Bitcoin’s (BTC USD) performance in the last 4 months triggered a mix of optimism and FOMO, with its latest ATH, but has many wondering whether it could push higher.

Polymarket offered some interesting insights regarding Bitcoin price prediction.

The prediction platform highlighted a 43% chance that BTC would stay above $120,000 by the end of July and only 4% probability that it could surge to $140,000.

The analysis meant that the figures for a Bitcoin price prediction of above $130,000 were somewhere in the middle.

Clear indication that there was not a lot of certainty regarding BTC’s potential upside by the time August rolls in.

While the probability of Bitcoin clocking $130,000 by August was lower, Polymarket revealed that the probability for the same target by the end of 2025 was higher.

It was 77% to be exact, which was a reflection of the market’s bullish mid-term outlook.

Main Factors that Could Influence Bitcoin Price Prediction

Whales and institutions were at the forefront of the latest rally, coupled with the push towards pro-crypto regulation.

However, Bitcoin price action was relatively sideways since Monday, indicating that the bullish momentum in the previous 4 weeks was cooling down.

Demand from investors FOMO-ing into Bitcoin (BTC USD) could potentially allow the bulls to resume their dominance.

However, there were some key factors that could potentially shift the outcomes.

Among those factors was the fact that the U.S was on track to reignite the tariff wars in the coming weeks.

The last time that tariff wars were heated, the crypto market experienced a sizable dip in sentiment.

Analysts were also keeping a close eye over the inflation situation which continued to influence the FED’s decision on interest rates.

This could possibly add further pressure to the market and force investors to shift their strategies in the coming weeks.

The possibility of Bitcoin price disruption may spoof investors and potentially lead to another bearish

phase. If that were to happen, then Bitcoin could potentially regain its bearish momentum.

It was worth noting that the remaining part of July may offer some buffer space, largely categorized intense market manipulation.

Here’s How Smart Money has Been Moving this Week

Bitcoin (BTC USD) price action exchanged hands above $118,000 after recovering from Friday’s low of $118,022. Itsnarrow and sideways range signaled that demand was weakening.

On-chain data revealed that therewas a surge in sell pressure.Bitcoin exchange netflow data revealed that there was a shift between outflows and inflows in the last 7days.

Exchange outflows on Binance were mostly dominant between BTC’s low in April and its recent highs.

According to a recent Cryptoquant analysis, roughly $2.7 billion worth of exchange inflows was observedsince 11 July.

This was in line with the cryptocurrency’s latest struggle to sustain the bullish momentum.

Exchange reserves bounced back from 2.39 million BTC on 10 July to 2.43 million BTC by 18 July. Thisconfirmed that there was a significant amount of profit-taking.

There was a noteworthy dip in BTC exchange inflows in the last 24 hours, which could signal that sellpressure was weak during the weekend.

This could potentially set the pace for another rally in the coming week if demand prevails. However, large order-book statistics on Coinglass revealed that spot flows on three major exchangeswere in the red.

On the other hand, perpetuals especially on Binance signaled bullish bets which amounted to over $400 million.

The situation on exchanges highlighted possibility of another manipulation event which could possibly push BTC volatility higher.

Bitcoin open interest remained high above $85 billion at the time of observation which meant there was still a high level of derivatives activity.