Bitcoin (BTC USD) price was consolidating around $110,000 in late September 2025. Analysts debated whether it could break above $123,000 in the coming months as political forecasts conflicted with technical indicators.
The discussion highlighted the divide between speculative optimism and probability-based modeling.
Bitcoin Price Faced Political Forecasts
Eric Trump predicted that BTC USD could stage a parabolic rally within three months. He suggested that the Bitcoin price might reach $1 Million by the end of 2025.
His statement drew attention because it tied a political figure’s outlook directly to market expectations.
Trump’s forecast rested on two arguments. First, he pointed to the launch of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 under the Trump administration.
This program was intended to secure Bitcoin reserves at a national level and reinforce the United States’ role in digital asset leadership.
Second, he referred to Bitcoin’s historical tendency to perform strongly during the fourth quarter, noting previous periods of late-year rallies.
However, prediction markets did not reflect the same confidence. Data from Polymarket assigned only a 5% probability that Bitcoin would exceed $125,000 by September 2025.
This probability measure illustrated a sharp contrast between politically driven expectations and statistical pricing models used by market participants.
Analysts noted that such political statements often influenced sentiment but rarely provided reliable guidance.
Market structures and technical setups typically carried more weight in shaping actual price behavior than political endorsements.
Bitcoin Price Showed Oversold Signals
Technical analysts reviewed chart structures to assess near-term movement. Kamran Asghar said that BTC maintained critical support near $107,300.
He argued that this level was important because holding it created a foundation for potential recovery.
Asghar described a scenario he called a “three-wave pump.” He said this pattern was consistent with prior rally structures and could potentially push the Bitcoin (BTC USD) price beyond $123,731 if momentum remained intact.
His outlook depended on continued strength at support levels and the ability of buyers to overcome resistance barriers.
Momentum indicators also supported the possibility of a rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, dropped below 30 in late September.
An RSI reading under 30 is generally interpreted as oversold. At press time, the RSI remained under that threshold.
This indicated that Bitcoin (BTC USD) was in oversold territory, a condition that historically preceded short-term rebounds in several prior cycles.
Despite these factors, probability markets stayed conservative. Polymarket models suggested less than a 1% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $124,000 in the near term.
Analysts said this showed caution from traders who based forecasts on statistical outcomes rather than historical analogies or political statements.
Broader Drivers Shaped the Market Outlook
Endorsements from political figures provided headlines but did not guarantee sustained buying. Analysts said Trump’s statement could create a temporary wave of optimism but noted that longer-term direction depended on technical and structural signals.
The Bitcoin price fluctuated within a wide band. Support levels held near $107,000, while resistance formed near $123,000.
These levels defined the trading range and emphasized the volatility inherent in digital assets.
Analysts said that such volatility made it difficult to reconcile speculative predictions with measurable probability models.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price remained near $110,000. Market participants monitored whether the token could consolidate long enough to attempt a breakout toward $123,000.
A move through that barrier would represent a technical shift and possibly encourage further inflows.
Outlook for Next Quarter
The final quarter of 2025 presented a test for Bitcoin. Analysts said that a decisive close above $123,000 would confirm momentum and open the path toward higher levels.
They also noted that oversold conditions provided technical support for the case. Still, forecast models projected low odds, suggesting that any rebound faced challenges.
Longer-term projections, such as Trump’s $1 Million target, remained outside the range of probability-based forecasts.
Analysts said such numbers were speculative because they lacked alignment with technical or statistical evidence. Instead, attention centered on the immediate levels of support and resistance.
In the near term, traders focused on whether Bitcoin could sustain support near $107,000 and mount a breakout above $123,000.
This range defined the short-term technical landscape and provided the clearest markers for direction as the year moved into its final quarter.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/28/bitcoin-price-prediction-123k-and-beyond-depends-on/