Bitcoin Price Poised for Short-term Rebound Amid Investor Anticipation of U.S. Employment Report

• Bitcoin rallied to a high of $61,600 in early European trading today as investors keenly awaited the release of the US September employment report.
• At the time of reporting, Bitcoin had retraced to around $61,300, marking a 1% increase for the day, according to CoinGecko data.
• Market strategists speculate that the employment numbers could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction in the coming months, thereby impacting cryptocurrency prices.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements pique interest amid potential regulatory shifts. Stay informed on the latest developments in the crypto market and how they might affect your investments.

September Employment Numbers: A Key Indicator

The eagerly anticipated September employment report, due at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, is expected to offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s prospective rate cuts in November. Economists anticipate a modest decline in new non-farm payrolls to 140,000 from August’s 142,000, with unemployment maintaining a stable rate of 4.2%. The reaction from the Fed to these numbers is pivotal for the crypto market as a steady economic outlook could prompt a more steady rate-cutting cycle, which market analysts believe might create a favorable environment for a rebound in cryptocurrency prices.

Short-term Recovery for Bitcoin?

Despite recent market turbulence, some analysts suggest Bitcoin might be on the verge of a short-term recovery. Analysis from CryptoQuant of the Coinbase premium index indicates robust demand from US investors. “Demand from US investors is persistently rising, signifying renewed upward pressure,” a CryptoQuant analyst highlighted, adding that the daily moving average has surpassed the weekly moving average, a pattern historically linked with subsequent price uplifts. This aligns with the current market scenario where Bitcoin recently corrected from $66,000 to $61,000 earlier this month. CryptoQuant’s analyses suggest these conditions might signal an imminent short-term rebound for Bitcoin’s price.

Market Moves: ETF Flows Reflect Investor Sentiment

Recent ETF flows indicate market fluctuations. On October 3, the US Bitcoin spot ETF observed a third consecutive day of net outflows. A total of $54.10 million exited investment products, with $37.20 million flowing out of (FBTC) and (ARKB) recording a significant outflow of $57.90 million, according to data from SoSo Value. In contrast, (IBIT) reported an inflow of $35.90 million, suggesting some investors remain optimistic about Bitcoin amid broader sell-offs. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs reported a total net outflow of $3.10 million, accentuating the cautious sentiment among investors in major cryptocurrencies.

Conclusion

The current sell-off might be nearing its end, according to analysts from 10x Research. They noted Bitcoin’s historical corrective reversals between the 5th and 7th of every month, suggesting a potential turning point. “The early-month sell-off is nearing its end as lows typically occur between the 5th and 7th each month,” 10x Research stated. They also pointed out that weak ISM manufacturing data and concerns over US employment contributed to the recent market downturn. However, they believe “evidence increasingly indicates that US economic growth remains strong,” which might lead to a more gradual Fed rate-cutting cycle. Simultaneously, institutional investors, particularly over-the-counter (OTC) desks, have played a crucial role in the recent market dynamics, with data showing these desks have been actively selling Bitcoin, driving its price down from $65,000 to $61,000. But as these desks begin to rebuild their balances, the selling pressure seems to be decreasing. 10x Research added that investor sentiment appears relatively calm as implied volatility remains low, with little demand for put options—indicating limited concerns over further downside risk. This view aligns with the historical trend where Bitcoin futures clearing often heralds market bottoms, suggesting the current sell-off might be concluding.