Today, the price quotation of Bitcoin on the markets is on the rise. The most interesting thing, however, is that this rise could also continue for a while longer.
After a month of pause, in fact, a new bull run could also begin.
The quotation of the Bitcoin price in recent weeks
Today, Friday, January 17, 2025, the price quotation of Bitcoin on the markets has returned above $100,000.
To tell the truth, this event in itself is not particularly interesting, but the trend of the last few days is.
Everything begins on Monday, when the price of Bitcoin fell for a very brief moment below $90,000. It was the lowest price reached after the update of the all-time highs in mid-December.
In fact, from December 20, 2024, until January 12, 2025, it did nothing but move sideways below $100,000, with a brief period above that figure between Monday, January 6, and Tuesday, January 7.
On January 13, however, the support placed more or less around $92,000, which had held for weeks, gave way, and the price ended up falling even below $90,000. At that point, however, within a very few hours, there was a rebound, which brought it back first above $92,000, very quickly, and then also above $94,000.
The quotation of the Bitcoin price today
Already the following day, Tuesday, January 14, the price quotation of Bitcoin (BTC) managed to climb back above $96,000, as if to suggest that Monday’s episode should be considered merely a temporary slip.
Things started to seem different on Wednesday the 15th, when suddenly the price of Bitcoin returned even above $99,000.
Note that this trend appears to be inversely related to that of the dollar, because starting from December 18, the Dollar Index began to rise. However, its run seems to have stopped precisely on Monday the 13th, with the highest peak in the last two years around the 110-point mark.
Here, starting from Tuesday the 14th, the Dollar Index first fell below 110 points, and then the following day also below 109 points, for a brief moment.
While the Dollar Index fell below 109 points, the quotation of Bitcoin rose above $99,000, and yesterday it returned above $100,000 despite the Dollar Index returning above 109 points.
Today the price of Bitcoin has broadly returned above $102,000.
The inverse correlation with the dollar
The return above $100,000 of the price of Bitcoin could be due to the fact that the markets have already started to price in a possible return of the Dollar Index below 108 points.
But there is also another inverse correlation that seems to have helped the BTC price recover in recent days.
It concerns the yields of USA government bonds.
In particular, the yield rates of 5 and 10-year US bonds have decreased significantly in the last three days, highlighting how the rush to risk-off assets in the short term might have ended.
In fact, from this point of view, the maximum peak of the last six months was reached precisely between Friday 10 and Tuesday 14, particularly on Monday 13.
As soon as the markets left that peak behind, the quotation of Bitcoin started to breathe again.
Much of this dynamic could be due to the US inflation data in December communicated precisely on Wednesday, January 15.
The politica monetaria della Fed
The key point of the issue is the monetary policy of the Fed, the central bank of the United States.
As of today, such a policy still proves to be decidedly restrictive, and on December 18th, fear spread in the markets that it might remain so restrictive for a long time.
Instead, on Wednesday it emerged that core inflation in the USA in December finally decreased a little (from 3.3% annual to 3.2%), something that hadn’t happened since August 2024.
In light of that data, the markets have slightly changed their mind about the possible level of restrictiveness of the Fed’s monetary policy for 2025. If after December 18 only one interest rate cut was expected in 2025, now at least two are expected, if not even three or four.
This true change of perspective might have also modified the medium-short term trend of the price of Bitcoin.
The forecasts on the Bitcoin price from today
In this regard, not only have hypotheses already begun to circulate about a possible continuation of the rise in Bitcoin’s price in the coming days, but some more optimistic forecasts have also started to emerge.
In particular, there are those who are beginning to consider it possible to surpass the all-time high of mid-December in the coming weeks, if not even an attempt to reach $110,000.
On the other hand, in January 2017, which is the month when Donald Trump took office for the first time as President of the USA, the price of Bitcoin remained substantially unchanged from mid-December 2016 to mid-January, and then began the bullrun again starting from the end of the month.
This time, however, it is different, because at the time this was a completely uncharted territory, whereas this time the markets might have already started to price in such a dynamic.
It is not even certain that in these months the 110,000$ is the maximum market price of BTC, but it is always necessary to keep in mind that if mini-bubbles inflate, they inevitably burst. However, mini-bubbles, if they are truly mini, tend to leave prices where they started after they burst.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/01/17/bitcoin-price-on-the-rise-today-ready-for-a-new-rally/