Bitcoin Price: MVRV Indicator Shows Cycle Top Not Attained

CryptoQuant analysts recently disclosed that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio shows that the price is yet to reach its cycle peak.

This indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating and awaiting more uptrends as market momentum peaks.

However, Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (OI) data shows decreasing momentum amid an intense market sell-off.

The Bitcoin Price 100-Day MVRV Indicator

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Price’s MVRV 100-day-moving average currently stands at 2.14. The MVRV ratio is an optimized indicator for detecting market tops and bottoms.

The onchain market data platform compared the current figure to previous performance.

According to the analysis, the MVRV ratio for Bitcoin reached a value of 3 at the market top in the past two cycles.

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Comparing the current MVRV value to those recorded in the past suggests there is room for more runs.

CryptoQuant claims Bitcoin is preparing to move towards the top price for this cycle. The platform thinks this move is likely to occur in the coming months.

To enter this extreme euphoria in the current cycle, Bitcoin must reach a price of $132,000.

As of the latest updates, Bitcoin price trades at $93,740, down 3.2% in the last 24 hours. As a result, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has dropped to $1.8 trillion.

The Glassnode Insight on Open Interest and Selloff

Per data from Coinglass, BTC futures Open Interest (OI) shows declining speculative momentum. Open Interest measures the number of outstanding contracts in the derivatives market.

A surge in OI indicates that fresh contracts are being executed. Conversely, a decrease in OI suggests traders are closing their positions, indicating that the trend may end soon.

According to the CoinGlass chart, the mid-term trendline (30-day SMA) peaked and is currently marginally declining.

Meanwhile, the short-term trendline (7-day SMA) has slipped below it. This scenario suggests that traders have closed positions in response to uncertain market conditions.

The futures market has seen a sharp rise in liquidations. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin liquidations have amounted to $90.14 million over the last 24 hours.

If we break this down further, $42.52 million is in long liquidations, while short liquidations accounted for $47.62.

Current FUD Around Bitcoin Selloff by the US Government

There has been a recent drop in Bitcoin’s price amid rumors surrounding the potential large sales by the US government.

According to Arkham Intelligence, the US government wallet that contained Bitcoin experienced a balance drop to zero on January 8.

There are ongoing reports that the US government has allegedly received final approval to sell a large Bitcoin stash seized from the Silk Road darknet marketplace.

Many people were taken aback, given that the timing of the acclaimed selloff occurred only a few days before Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Investors fear that selling the government’s $6.5 billion Bitcoin holdings could cause market turbulence, which could negatively affect the price of cryptocurrencies.

It is important to note that the US government has sold some Bitcoin from its reserve earlier. In 2023 the government sold 9000 BTC, valued at about $125 million.

Arkham reported that the US government’s Bitcoin stash is now pegged at 216,788 BTC, valued at over $20 billion at the current market price.

With this stash, many expect any selloff, if confirmed, might have a more profound negative impact than Germany’s selloff in 2024.