Bitcoin price is sinking hard, how deep could the fall go?

Could the Bitcoin price fall further after breaching $100,000, or will institutional buyers step in to support the current levels?

Bitcoin price slips below $100,000

Bitcoin’s slide below $100,000 has reignited anxiety across crypto markets. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080, the world’s largest crypto has fallen about 21%, trading near $99,500 as of this writing on Nov. 7.

The latest drop followed a sharp selloff on Nov. 4, when Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched $99,000 after a sudden collapse in U.S. equities triggered a global risk-off move. While prices recovered slightly afterward, the rebound faded quickly as selling pressure returned.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds continue to dampen sentiment. The U.S.–China trade standoff remains unresolved, adding to broader uncertainty. 

At the same time, investors are closely tracking Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, which saw $240 million in inflows on Nov. 6, the first positive reading since Oct. 28, according to CoinGlass data.

Concerns over the ongoing U.S. government shutdown are further eroding confidence. Historically, such standoffs have coincided with weak liquidity and declining risk appetite. The 2018–2019 shutdown, for instance, occurred near Bitcoin’s last major cycle bottom. 

Prediction platform Polymarket now places the odds of the current impasse extending beyond Nov. 16 at roughly 50%, keeping market sentiment fragile.

Why crypto sentiment turned bearish

The downturn in crypto sentiment traces back to a series of interconnected events that compounded over the past month.

The first major blow came from an unprecedented $19 billion liquidation event between Oct. 10 and Oct. 11, when leveraged traders were caught off guard by a sudden market collapse.

Roughly $16.8 billion of these were long positions, meaning bullish bets that were forcibly closed as prices fell. More than 1.6 million traders were liquidated within a day, and in one particularly violent stretch, about $3.2 billion vanished within a single minute.

Excessive leverage had been building in derivatives markets in the days leading up to the crash. Before the selloff, funding rates for perpetual futures and open-interest ratios were stretched to near-record levels.

The ratio of open interest to Bitcoin’s total market value was abnormally high, suggesting that speculative exposure was running ahead of organic demand.

The mass deleveraging erased weeks of speculative positioning and left the market structurally fragile, with reduced liquidity and shaken confidence.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions further intensified the downturn. In early October, the U.S. imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and introduced new export restrictions, reigniting fears of a prolonged U.S.–China trade war. Since then, both countries have signed deals to soften the blow, but sentiment remains fragile.

As a result, the global crypto market cap fell to about $3.35 trillion as of Nov. 7, a decline of nearly 22% from its peak of $4.28 trillion on Oct. 7.

ETF flow patterns confirmed the change in tone. Through late October, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $550 million in cumulative outflows, marking a sharp reversal from earlier inflow streaks.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a measure derived from volatility, volume, and market momentum, fell to around 21 as of this writing, classified as “extreme fear.”

Technical structure signals extended downside risk

Bitcoin is trading near $99,500 after falling from its October high. The chart structure indicates that a descending channel has been forming since mid-October, with each rebound producing lower highs and each decline breaking previous support levels.

The most recent candle shows another failed attempt to reclaim $102,000, confirming persistent selling pressure near that level.

Volume has spiked noticeably during the latest declines, signaling that the selloff is not merely a result of weak buying interest but of active position exits, a typical characteristic of capitulation phases when traders lock in profits or cut losses instead of accumulating.

From a support-resistance standpoint, Bitcoin now faces immediate resistance at $102,500 and $106,000. The $99,000 level, briefly tested on Nov. 4, serves as the next critical support.

If this level fails to hold, the next potential zone lies between $95,000 and $92,000, which aligns with a prior accumulation area from August and early September. Below that, a deeper correction could expose the $88,000 to $90,000 range, where stronger buying interest may reappear.

Based on moving average data, the short-term trend remains sharply negative. The 5-day average stands near $102,472, while the 20-day is around $108,674, both above the current price, indicating that momentum has turned decisively lower.

Even the 200-day average, positioned near $103,917, remains above spot price, suggesting that the broader trend has also weakened.

Overall, the technical picture remains bearish but increasingly oversold. Bitcoin is hovering near the psychological support at $100,000, with heavy resistance overhead. Sustained closes below $99,000 could invite a retest of the mid-$90,000 range, while a clean break above $106,000 would be needed to hint at any recovery.

Analysts warn of fading demand and renewed whale exits

As Bitcoin struggles to maintain stability above $100,000, analysts view the current price action as a reflection of weakening momentum.

Ted Pillows, a crypto market analyst, said that Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $100,000 is temporary unless it breaks and sustains a daily close above $106,000.

He also noted that the Coinbase Bitcoin premium, which measures the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase and global exchanges, remains deeply negative.

Historically, a negative premium signals lower buying interest from U.S. institutions and retail investors, suggesting that confidence is still weak.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, shared data showing that long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “OG whales,” are selling heavily.

His analysis, based on Glassnode on-chain metrics, indicates multiple $100 million and $500 million sell events from wallets inactive since before 2018. Such activity usually reflects distribution from early investors taking profit or exiting amid market uncertainty.

When long-term holders begin to sell in clusters, it often creates downward pressure on price, as newer market participants tend to absorb these coins only at lower valuations.

Another concerning metric came from CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index. The index recently dropped to zero for the first time since January 2022, the same signal that preceded the start of the previous bear market.

A zero reading means that most major market indicators, including funding rates, stablecoin inflows, and exchange reserves, have turned bearish.

The overall sentiment is that the market remains fragile and driven more by fear than fundamentals. Investors should stay cautious, manage risk carefully, and remember that crypto remains one of the most volatile asset classes in the world. Trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.