Bitcoin Price Faces Historically Bearish September After Miner-Driven August Dip

Key Insights:

• August Bitcoin (BTC) price weakness driven by miner sell pressure.
• Energy costs push miners to dump reserves.
• Creates short-term dips, long-term entries.
• September is historically Bitcoin’s weakest month.

Bitcoin kicked off September trading around $110,000, down roughly 6–7% from its mid-August all-time high. Recent on-chain data suggest the sell‑off was driven in part by miner profit-taking.

CryptoQuant’s metrics show a spike in miner‐to‐exchange flows during August as miners “began offloading their holdings to lock in profits,” creating fresh downside pressure.

This miner sell‑off coincided with slowing demand: institutional flows into BTC ETFs were sturdy (nearly $237 million net inflow last week), but overall trading volumes and derivatives indicators point to caution.

For example, Glassnode reports that spot trading volume in late August fell about 9% week-over-week, and Bitcoin futures open interest and funding rates have declined, signaling waning appetite for additional longs.

In short, price action has been fragile despite reclaiming $110K, leaving traders wary of further drops.

Bitcoin reclaimed $110K early September, but on‐chain analytics and market metrics remain cautious.

Indicators like Glassnode’s volume and funding charts suggest a defensive stance among investors.

Miner Sell-Off Spurred August Weakness

Analysts cite miner behavior as a key culprit in August’s correction. After Bitcoin set a ~$122K peak on July 14, miners accumulated during the rally but then shifted gears.

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s Miner Reserve – the coins held in mining wallets – peaked in late July and then trended downward since July 22.

In practical terms, miners began moving large batches of newly‐mined coins to exchanges. CryptoQuant’s Miner-to-Exchange flow spiked in August, coinciding with higher electricity costs and seasonal demands on mining operations.

As CryptoQuant explains, these bursts of miner selling traditionally align with local market tops, “intensifying downside momentum just as liquidity thins” in summer.

The result was a supply surge into the market. An analyst observed that by late July miners were “offloading holdings to lock in profits,” introducing “new headwinds for BTC in August.”

With miners accounting for most new coin supply, their selling can readily amplify price declines.

Short-term traders often use this as a tactical signal: anticipating miner-driven weakness can allow for hedging or setting up short positions ahead of deeper dips.

Indeed, miners did exert strong selling pressure in late August. Bitcoin closed August about 6.5% lower than it opened, snapping a multi-month win streak.

CryptoQuant analysts suggest this miner capitulation may have temporarily saturated markets – a trend that could ease once September flows slow.

Bitcoin Price: Seasonal ‘Septembear’ Effect

Traders also note that September has historically been bearish for Bitcoin. In fact, data show that over 80% of months see their high or low set within the first 12 trading days.

For September, history is not encouraging. CoinGlass data cited by CryptoPotato shows BTC ended 8 of the last 12 Septembers in the red.

Notably, even in previous bull markets (2017 and 2021), Bitcoin fell over 7% in September.Analyst “Mags” notes the long‑term average September return is about –3.5%.

TipRanks echoes this, calling September “already living up to its billing as the worst month of the year for crypto,” with Bitcoin’s price down from the peak of $124K to around $109K entering September.

Top traders on X (Twitter) like Daan Crypto point out that the first few days of September are crucial.

“It’s been a good strategy to wait out the first few days of the month,” he said on Sept. 1, noting that early‐month shakeouts are common.

In practice, many analysts expect this week to set the monthly high. If that pans out, any further dip later could offer a buying opportunity before a historically strong October–November rally.

For now, however, sentiment remains cautious: Analysts observe that broader indicators (CoinGlass bull market gauges) haven’t flipped bullish, reinforcing the view that a seasonal correction is unfolding.

Bitcoin Price Outlook for Traders for September

With these factors in play, what should traders watch now? In technical terms, Bitcoin is battling key levels near the late-August highs.

BTC/USDT faces resistance around $110,500–$112,000; a decisive break above there would open a path back to record highs.

On the downside, the near-term supports are around $107K and then a crucial line near $100,000.

Indeed, many commentators see the $100K zone (the roughly 200-day MA) as a make-or-break level in September.

Falling below it could invite bearish momentum. So far, Bitcoin dipped to ~$107.5K before bouncing back to $110.5K on Sept. 2.

Short-term traders may also heed seasonal patterns: history suggests a lot of volatility in the first week.

If Bitcoin does make a new high early this month, the classic advice is to “sit tight for a few days” and let the dust settle.

Conversely, if BTC drops, traders look for re-entry points – many view any pullback near $100–105K as a chance to buy, given the historically bullish autumn ahead.