Key Insights:
- About $1.8 billion in Bitcoin options are expiring on Jan. 23, with heavy open interest clustered around $90K, $92K, and $100K.
- The max-pain level near $92,000 is acting as a short-term magnet for Bitcoin price action ahead of expiry.
- Bitcoin price remains sensitive to macro risks, including renewed U.S. tariff threats and global market selloffs.
As markets brace for Friday’s Jan. 23 options expiry, Bitcoin price has stalled near the $90,000 mark. Deribit data show roughly 21,700 Bitcoin options contracts (about $1.8 billion notional) expiring.
Analysts say those positions cluster around key strikes, placing the “max pain” level near $92,000, above today’s spot price. If Bitcoin holds below $92K into Friday’s cut-off, many call options will finish out of the money. Traders warn that this concentrated open interest can amplify volatility as the expiry nears.
The backdrop is tense: U.S. tariff threats on Europe have rippled through markets. Bitcoin slid 3.6% Monday to the mid-$80Ks after President Trump’s speech.
Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms
Nearly $2 billion of Bitcoin open interest sits at the upper strikes of this expiry. CoinGlass data show about $2.0 billion of open interest at the $100,000 strike alone. It also shows roughly $1.1 billion more, split between $85K and $90K strikes.
In total, calls (long bets) outnumber puts (protective shorts) – a put/call ratio of about 0.75 for the Jan. 23 batch. This skew suggests a modest bullish bias, but not an extreme one.
Deribit analysts note that such strike clustering “keeps spot sensitive into the cut.” In practice, if Bitcoin drifts toward these magnet levels, dealers will need to adjust hedges (delta-neutral strategies) accordingly.
Bitcoin options expert commentary from Deribit warns that as expiry approaches, these hedging flows could reinforce any move toward or away from $92K.
In short, dense positioning at key strikes makes Bitcoin price action around expiry more prone to swings. Once contracts roll off, heavy gamma exposure may be released, potentially triggering a sharp post-expiry move as the market rebalances.
Max-Pain Test for Bitcoin Price
“Max pain” is defined as the price at which the largest number of options expire worthless. By this measure, the Jan. 23 expiry’s max-pain level is about $92,000. That is just above current trading levels.
If Bitcoin stays below $92K into expiry, most $90K and $100K calls expire worthless, capping any quick upside. But a solid break and hold above $92K could trigger heavy short-covering and turn into a fast squeeze.
Analysts highlight that these strikes form a sort of test for Bitcoin price. As one analyst noted, the drop from $96K toward $88–90K “hunted key support” and may itself reflect options-driven dynamics.
More broadly, the confluence of technical levels and expiring bets could mechanically influence price action. A push toward $92K may draw in more buying or selling from hedgers.
Market observers caution that any decisive move around expiry could spark further momentum, either a relief bounce or a sharper selloff. This will depend on how traders re-hedge.
Tariffs and Volatility
This options saga comes amid renewed volatility in global markets. On Monday, U.S. stock futures and Asian equity indices fell after President Trump threatened new tariffs on several European countries over Greenland.
This “widespread selloff” in stocks and bonds drove safe havens like gold to fresh highs, while Bitcoin slid roughly 4% in tandem. As IG analyst Chris Beauchamp observed on Jan. 19, “cryptocurrencies offered no haven from the wave of selling that washed over global markets” in response to the threat.
The broader takeaway is that macro events are increasingly moving crypto. Matrixport research similarly argues that 2026 will be an “event-dense” year, with alternating macro and crypto catalysts amplifying volatility.
Trade policy shocks – tariffs on the horizon and deal cancellations – serve as one tool to provoke risk-off episodes. In this light, Monday’s tariff episode falls in line with a pattern of Bitcoin tracking equities during stress.
For traders, the key question is whether the current selloff has “washed out” enough bearish pressure, or if renewed uncertainty could push Bitcoin price further down.