Key Insights:
- BTC Percent Supply in Profit metric has hit the 99.4% threshold singaling major Bitcoin price moves.
- Bitcoin STH amass 3.45 million BTC as price consolidates.
- Retail BTC investors have increased their activity following a new ATH.
Bitcoin (BTC) began today’s session on a bullish ride, after hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $126,200 on October 6.
Analyzing the latest trajectory of BTC, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr confirmed profitability for both long and short-term holders.
The question now is whether BTC price can climb to higher levels, possibly towards $133,000 as Adler predicted.
Bitcoin LTH and STH Become Profitable
Axel Adler Jr, a verified Analyst for the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, confirmed that 99.4% of the Bitcoin supply is currently in profit.
The high percentage signals widespread gains across the network. It benefits both long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), as well as institutions and retailers.
Adler emphasized that almost all holders are now profitable, while market sentiment remains very bullish.
Historically, when the Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit metric hits 98% or higher, it indicates a mature bull market phase.
Adler reiterated that the Short-Term Holder Realized Price for BTC is targeted at $133,000. This projected level is where STH profitability is expected to peak in this cycle, thus acting as a local top.
In a follow-up post on X, the analyst zoomed in on Short-Term Holders. He noted that unrealized profit for these investors has increased to 10%, rising from the 15% seen earlier this year.
At these levels, historical Bitcoin price patterns indicate that STHs often sell aggressively to lock in gains, fearing a potential reversal. This could create downward price pressure for Bitcoin.
According to Adler, the 15% unrealized profit will correspond to $131,800 per BTC. The implication is that STHs may resume heavy selling if BTC climbs towards $132,800, potentially causing a pullback.
Bitcoin STH Demonstrates Resilience in Bitcoin Price
Commenting on the Bitcoin holders’ analysis, Bitcoin Onchain Analysis Suite Checkonchain highlighted an evolving behavior among STHs.
The analysis focused on the massive inflow of Bitcoin into the hands of STH during this bull cycle compared to the rally witnessed between 2016 and 2017.
According to Checkonchain, 3.45 million BTC has shifted to Short-Term Holders this cycle. This competes with 2016-2017 in scale, but at 100 times higher prices.
Therefore, while the coin count rivals 2017, the dollar value of this shift is exponentially larger.
This accumulation signals robust demand from STH. They are not just flipping, but building positions amid ATHs.
Checkonchian added that even when more than 90% of STHs were in red, only a few sold their coins, demonstrating their commitment.
Reactions on Bitcoin Price from BTC Retail Investors
Furthermore, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin is gaining more attention from retail investors.
The analyst noted that the retail investors’ shift followed BTC’s rally to a new ATH.
According to Darkfost, retail Bitcoin investors have increased their activity on the Binance crypto exchange. This means coins moving from personal wallets to the exchange for trading, buying, or selling.
Investors holding less than 1 BTC on Binance have increased sharply since BTC hit a new ATH of $126,200.
Darkfost explained that retail investors appear to be reacting more to the bullish momentum as usual. In contrast, larger BTC players are consolidating their position.
This indicates market maturity; while institutions build the foundation with recent accumulation, retailers are becoming more engaged.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, the BTC trading volume has surged 21.7% over the past 24 hours to $70.9 billion.
At press time, BTC price is valued at $124,096, up 0.18% over the previous day.
With momentum high in both the retail and spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the coin could easily rally towards the $133,000 target.
Some analysts even predicted that BTC could rally towards $250,000 this year.