Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Tests $114K Support as Bears Take Control

Quick Take

• BTC currently trading at $114,285.99 (+0.66% in 24h)
• Bitcoin’s RSI sits in neutral territory at 46.43 with bearish MACD divergence
• Federal Reserve holds rates steady while White House releases comprehensive crypto policy framework

What’s Driving Bitcoin Price Today?

The BTC price remains relatively stable following two significant regulatory developments this week. The Federal Reserve’s decision on July 31st to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5% has provided a neutral backdrop for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s emphasis on a data-dependent approach suggests potential rate cuts later in 2025, which could benefit Bitcoin if implemented.

Adding to the regulatory landscape, the White House released a comprehensive 160-page digital assets policy report on July 30th. This detailed framework covers securities, banking, taxation, and cybersecurity aspects of cryptocurrency markets. While the report advocates for modernizing trading infrastructure and consolidating exchange roles, its immediate impact on BTC price has been minimal.

Despite these potentially positive regulatory clarifications, Bitcoin’s price action suggests traders are taking a cautious approach. The relatively low 24-hour trading volume of $783.8 million on Binance spot markets indicates reduced market participation during this consolidation phase.

BTC Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerge

Bitcoin technical analysis reveals concerning momentum shifts despite the asset’s position above key long-term support levels. The most significant bearish indicator comes from Bitcoin’s MACD, which shows a histogram reading of -929.4056, indicating deteriorating bullish momentum for BTC.

Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at 46.43, placing BTC RSI in neutral territory but trending toward oversold conditions. This reading suggests selling pressure is building without reaching extreme levels that typically indicate reversal opportunities.

The moving average structure presents a mixed picture for Bitcoin. While BTC trades above its 50-day SMA at $112,251.69 and well above the 200-day SMA at $99,341.61, the current price sits below both the 7-day SMA ($115,130.32) and 20-day SMA ($117,209.71). This configuration suggests short-term weakness within a longer-term uptrend.

Bitcoin’s position within the Bollinger Bands provides additional context, with BTC trading near the lower band at a %B position of 0.1386. This positioning indicates Bitcoin support levels are being tested, with the lower band at $113,164.19 serving as immediate technical support.

Bitcoin Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Based on Binance spot market data, several critical Bitcoin support levels emerge for traders monitoring potential entry points. The immediate support zone sits at $111,920.00, representing the first major level defending against further declines.

Should selling pressure intensify, Bitcoin’s strong support level at $98,200.00 becomes crucial. This level aligns closely with the 200-day moving average, creating a confluence of technical factors that could attract buyers.

On the upside, BTC resistance appears formidable at current levels. The immediate resistance sits at $120,998.71, followed by strong BTC resistance at $123,218.00. These levels represent significant hurdles for any sustained recovery attempt in the near term.

The 24-hour trading range between $115,000.00 and $113,472.54 provides insight into current market dynamics, with BTC price action remaining constrained within a relatively narrow band despite the positive daily performance.

Should You Buy BTC Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

For conservative traders, the current setup presents limited appeal given the bearish momentum indicators. The negative MACD histogram suggests waiting for clearer bullish signals before establishing long positions in BTC/USDT pairs.

Aggressive traders might consider the current BTC price attractive if viewing it as a potential retest of the lower Bollinger Band support. However, risk management becomes crucial with stop-loss levels below $111,920.00 to protect against breaks of immediate support.

Swing traders should monitor Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 20-day SMA at $117,209.71. A decisive move above this level, combined with improving RSI momentum, could signal a return to bullish conditions for BTC.

The Average True Range of $2,649.34 indicates substantial volatility potential, suggesting position sizing should account for significant price swings in either direction.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current technical picture suggests caution despite trading above major long-term support levels. The combination of bearish MACD signals and BTC RSI trending toward oversold territory indicates potential further weakness in the coming 24-48 hours. Traders should monitor the $111,920.00 support level closely, as a break below could accelerate selling toward the $98,200.00 strong support zone. Until Bitcoin technical analysis shows improvement in momentum indicators, the path of least resistance appears to favor patient accumulation strategies over aggressive buying.

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