Bitcoin might be poised for a major upswing despite today’s high-interest environment, according to a fresh analysis from crypto economist Timothy Peterson.
Drawing from historical data, Peterson explored how the leading cryptocurrency has reacted in past cycles when U.S. High Yield interest rates climbed above 8%.
Looking at trends dating back to 2010, Peterson found 38 instances where such interest rate conditions occurred. In the three months following those spikes, Bitcoin delivered impressive results—averaging a 71% increase, with a median return of 31%. The worst downside during those periods?
A modest 16% drop. Based on this, Peterson believes Bitcoin could be trading anywhere between $75,000 and $138,000 in the coming quarter if similar patterns repeat.
Another angle of his research focused on Bitcoin’s increasingly close relationship with the U.S. Dollar. Although the two assets don’t influence each other directly, Peterson argues their recent movements reflect shared exposure to broader macroeconomic forces—like shrinking liquidity, rising real interest rates, and a global pullback from risk.
Interestingly, he points out that this correlation has shifted in nature since 2024. Previously, Bitcoin and high-yield rates often moved in opposite directions, but now they’re both reacting to the same stressors. Looking ahead, Peterson predicts Bitcoin will eventually decouple from these pressures and begin to climb again—especially once monetary conditions begin to ease and capital flows return.
Alexander Stefanov
Reporter at Coindoo
Alex is an experienced finance journalist and a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain and fintech industries, he deeply understands the complex and constantly evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His passionate approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and insightful content. Follow up on his content to be up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-poised-to-break-free-from-macro-grip-forecasts-show-strong-upside/