Bitcoin Options Expiry On Friday, Will Bulls Push the Price Beyond $18K or Bears Tightened Their Grip?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price recently slumped hard below $15,500 marking the 2022 lows, whipping out more than 200 million from the crypto space. This move appears to have made the bears more confident of the BTC price remaining within the bearish influence as BTC options expiry is due on December 09, 2022. But these bets are unlikely to pay off as the actual figures are expected to be much lower than expected. 

Nearly $320 million worth of BTC is due to get expired this month, while the actual figures are expected to be pretty lower. Mainly due to the reason that the bears appear to be overly pessimistic about the price as it constantly trading within a descending trend. 

The above chart shows the imbalance between the $175 million call (buy) open interest and the $145 million put (Sell) options. This indicates that the most bearish bets are more likely to become worthless and get liquidated. However, for this to happen, Bitcoin price is required to remain around $17,000 until the options get expired on December 09 as only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options would be available. 

Due to this, the shorts at $16,500 or $15,000 is useless if BTC trades above these levels until the expiry. Moreover, only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options may remain available then. This may rise for 4 possible scenarios this Friday, 

• Of the BTC price trades between $15,500 & $16,500, the ratio could be 200 calls vs 2100 puts that enhance the bearish influence

• If the price is between $16,500 and $17,000, the ratio could be 1,700 calls vs 1,500 puts which may have an equal balance between the bulls and the bears

• Further for the price levels between $17,000 & $18,000, the ratio could be 5,500 calls vs 100 puts, while the result may be in favor of bulls

• Lastly within the price range of $18,000 and $18,500, the ratio will be 7,300 calls vs 0 puts where bulls could dominate the rally ahead

 Therefore, the upcoming couple of days could be pretty crucial for the Bitcoin (BTC) price as the present day’s close may largely determine the levels on December 09, just before the Bitcoin Option expiry.