Bitcoin open interest plummets to a 6-month low

Bitcoin’s (BTC) open interest has dramatically declined during the cryptocurrency’s month-long price slide, witnessing its sharpest 30-day drop this cycle, according to November 24 metrics Finbold reviewed from on-chain and market data analytics CryptoQuant.

The flagship cryptocurrency has lost roughly 20% over the past month and more than 30% since hitting a record above $126,000 in early October, trading at around $86,100 at press time. 

Weeks of declining prices have, in turn, triggered waves of Bitcoin liquidations, forcing traders to double down or recalibrate their positions. At the same time, sentiment appears to be shifting, with many investors now stepping back from futures markets to limit risk.

Will Bitcoin recover?

The shift, driven largely by Binance, has led to roughly 1.3 million BTC in open positions being shed. A similar figure has not been seen since the 2022 bear market, according to cryptocurrency market analyst Darkfost, which further underscores the scale of the current cleanup.

Historically, phases like these have played a crucial role in establishing durable market bottoms, but this cycle, the analyst argued, has been particularly leverage-heavy. Namely, the total open interest recently hit a record of about $47.5 billion, highlighting just how aggressively traders were positioned in futures markets. 

This is not likely to signal a healthy backdrop, being rather more likely to lead to instability and abrupt corrections when liquidity shifts.

MN Fund founder and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the coming week will be “decisive” for “digital gold”, arguing that a move back into the $90,000–$96,000 range would sharply improve the odds of a fresh all-time high. He appears bullish, even suggesting the current state of the market is comparable to some of the “best opportunities.”

“Upcoming week is going to be decisive for Bitcoin. If this can rally back to $90-96K and it’s able to stay at those levels, then the chances of a revival towards a new ATH have significantly increased. Fear and panic are max during the past days. Those are the best opportunities in the markets,” van de Poppe wrote on X.

Bitcoin ETFs record record outflows

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track for their heaviest month of outflows since debuting nearly two years ago.

The weakening momentum has naturally added a lot of additional pressure to an already fatigued crypto market.

For instance, investors have withdrawn roughly $3.5 billion from Bitcoin ETFs so far in November, nearly matching the record $3.6 billion pulled in February. BlackRock, which controls about 60% of all assets in the category, has seen $2.2 billion in redemptions alone.

Further institutional strain was added by JPMorgan’s push for MSCI to exclude Bitcoin-heavy firms such as Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) from equity indices, which has fueled fears of debanking and index-eligibility risks.

Bitcoin’s downturn thus appears to reflect a combination of institutional retreat, technical deterioration, and broader macro uncertainty. While deeply oversold metrics could fuel a short-term bounce, as argued by van de Poppe, reclaiming the $90,000 mark will likely require renewed ETF inflows and a change in investor sentiment.

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