Bitcoin Onchain Data Suggests Potential for Price Breakout Toward $117,000 and Beyond

• Bitcoin’s onchain and technical data indicate a promising upward trajectory, with key indicators pointing toward a potential surge beyond $110,000.

• Analysts highlight the significance of the short-term holder cost basis and MVRV metrics as critical signals for Bitcoin’s next major price movement.

• According to COINOTAG sources, a breakout above the $109,000-$110,000 resistance zone could trigger a rally pushing Bitcoin toward new all-time highs near $130,000.

Bitcoin’s technical and onchain data suggest a breakout above $110,000 could lead BTC to new highs, with key metrics supporting a bullish outlook.

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Bitcoin’s Technical Indicators Signal Potential Breakout Above $110,000

Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong resilience within a well-defined trading range between $78,000 and $110,000 over the past six months. The short-term holder (STH) cost basis—which reflects the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—has been a reliable indicator of price ceilings and floors during this period. Glassnode’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s price recently tested the upper boundary of this cost basis band at around $112,000, marking a critical resistance level.

The significance of this metric lies in its ability to highlight investor behavior and potential profit-taking zones. If Bitcoin successfully retests and surpasses this upper band, the path toward $117,000 becomes increasingly plausible. This aligns with the historical pattern where the STH cost basis acts as a short-term price ceiling, and breaking through it often precedes substantial upward momentum.

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MVRV Metric Supports Further Price Expansion

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is another essential onchain indicator that helps determine whether Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical norms. Currently, the MVRV data suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow before reaching an overbought state. The upper MVRV band, which signals extreme unrealized profit levels, is positioned near $123,000. This implies that Bitcoin’s current price action is not yet at an unsustainable peak, providing a technical foundation for further gains.

Such insights are crucial for investors aiming to time entries and exits effectively, as they provide a quantitative measure of market sentiment and potential risk. The combination of STH cost basis and MVRV metrics offers a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term price potential.

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Key Resistance at $109,000-$110,000: A Critical Juncture for Bitcoin

Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital has emphasized the importance of the $109,000-$110,000 range as a decisive breakout level. Bitcoin has been retesting a descending trendline that has acted as resistance for several months. A daily close above this trendline, followed by a successful retest as support, would confirm a bullish breakout and could catalyze a strong upward move.

Such a breakout would not only signal a shift in market momentum but also likely attract increased institutional and retail interest, potentially driving liquidity and volume higher. This scenario is supported by technical chart patterns, including a bullish flag formation, which typically precedes continuation moves in the direction of the prevailing trend.

Projected Targets Post-Breakout and Market Sentiment

Following a confirmed breakout above the $110,000 resistance, analysts like Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) project that Bitcoin’s price could target $130,000 in the near term. This target is derived from measured moves based on the bull flag pattern and aligns with historical breakout behaviors observed in Bitcoin’s price cycles.

Market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, with traders closely monitoring volume and price action around these key levels. The convergence of technical indicators and onchain data provides a compelling case for a sustained rally, although prudent risk management remains essential given the inherent volatility of cryptocurrency markets.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current price dynamics, supported by robust onchain metrics such as the short-term holder cost basis and MVRV ratio, suggest that the cryptocurrency is poised for a significant breakout above the $110,000 resistance level. Confirmation of this breakout could pave the way for new all-time highs approaching $130,000. Investors and traders should watch for a daily close above the descending trendline and subsequent retest as support to validate this bullish scenario. While optimism is warranted, maintaining disciplined risk controls will be critical as Bitcoin navigates this pivotal phase.