Bitcoin NUPL Indicator Flashes Bearish Signal that Preceded Previous Corrections — BTC On-Chain Analysis

BeInCrypto analyzes the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit Loss (NUPL) indicator in order to determine the magnitude of the current BTC supply that is in profit and loss.

NUPL

NUPL is an on-chain indicator that measures the total amount of profit or loss in the market. Readings below 0 signify that the overall market is seeing losses, while those above 0 show that the market is in profit. Similarly, a reading of 0.5 suggests that half of the current BTC supply is in profit, while the other half is in the red.

Historically, values above 0.75 (blue) have coincided with market tops while those below 0.25 (red) have coincided with market bottoms. 

Market cycle analysis

The most interesting relationship of NUPL with previous Bitcoin market cycles appeared during the 2018 correction. More specifically, arising with readings above and below 0.5.

During the 2015-2018 bull run, the NUPL broke out above 0.5 (black circle) in January 2017 and stayed above the line until the correction occurred at the beginning of 2018. The beginning of the correction (red circle) was marked by a breakdown below the 0.5 value.

In the current market cycle, NUPL first crossed above 50 (black circle) in October 2020. This cross preceded the upward move towards the current all-time high price of $69,000. 

Since then, readings have been dissimilar to those between 2015-2018. NUPL values crossed below and above the 0.5 line (red circle) in July 2021 before crossing back below 0.5 in January 2022.

2011-2014 market cycle

While not identical, there are some similarities between the current NUPL values and those seen in 2012 and 2013.

In August 2012, NUPL briefly moved above 0.5 before falling back below (black circle). However, instead of marking the beginning of a correction, the price increased and reached a new all-time high. 

Following this, the indicator fell below 0.5 once again before reclaiming the line (red circle). This led to yet another all-time high. 

Finally, the third drop below 0.5 was the decisive instance that confirmed the correction had begun. This was later confirmed with a decrease below 0.25 (blue circle).

Therefore, as long as NUPL is hovering above 0.25, the possibility of a bullish reversal remains. However, a decrease below 0.25 would all but confirm that a true trend correction has begun.

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