Bitcoin News: SOPR Drops Below 1 as RSI Hits Record Low

Key Insights

• As per the latest Bitcoin news, short-term holders sold BTC at a loss.
• The weekly Bitcoin RSI reached its lowest reading.
• Bitcoin price MVRV showed no full cycle reset

Bitcoin news turned defensive after on-chain data showed rising loss realization among short-term holders. The shift followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 15% global tariff on Saturday, which injected fresh macro uncertainty into risk markets.

Traders reacted quickly, pushing key sentiment metrics into stress territory. The broader Bitcoin news cycle now reflected a market under pressure rather than structural distribution.

Short-term holders drove most of the selling, while long-term investors largely stayed inactive. That divergence suggested reactive positioning instead of cycle-level exit behavior.

Bitcoin News: Short-Term Holders Drive Loss Realization

CryptoQuant data showed the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio fell to 0.95, signaling that recent buyers sold below cost basis. XWIN Research Japan wrote in a Monday Quicktake that renewed loss realization stemmed from uncertainty, not strategic liquidation.

This shift occurred because macro and Bitcoin news headlines triggered defensive positioning among newer market participants.

Glassnode figures indicated that the seven-day exponential moving average of short-term holder net realized losses cooled to $500 million per day. That reading followed a prior spike to $1.24 billion on Feb. 6, marking a sharp but temporary surge in forced exits.

Although intensity eased, Bitcoin (BTC) loss realization remained elevated relative to neutral conditions. The same analytics firm reported that the 90-day simple moving average of Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio slipped below 1.

That threshold historically marked entry into excess loss regimes. Such transitions often accompanied base-building phases rather than immediate trend reversals.

Bitcoin (BTC) RSI Hits Record Oversold Level

TradingView data showed Bitcoin weekly relative strength index reached 25.71 on Tuesday. That marked the lowest reading ever recorded on the weekly timeframe.

The Bitcoin news followed persistent downside momentum that accelerated after macro uncertainty expanded.

Historical comparisons offered context without certainty. Similar oversold readings appeared before Bitcoin bottomed at $15,500 in a prior cycle, after extended capitulation.

Each instance saw short-term weakness continue before longer recoveries formed. Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin wrote on X that the current RSI reading of 25.6 dropped below levels seen after the Three Arrows Capital and Terra Luna collapse.

He added that further downside remained possible even as a local bottom approached. That reaction mirrored past periods where sentiment deteriorated faster than structural fundamentals.

BTC Valuation Metrics Show Incomplete Reset

Bitcoin on-chain valuation metrics painted a more restrained picture. Market value to realized value ratio data showed readings around 1.1 to 1.2, indicating that average holders remained in profit.

In prior cycles, final bottoms formed closer to or below 1.0, when unrealized gains evaporated.

This difference matters. When MVRV fell near 0.8 in mid-2022, the market experienced broad profit wipeouts and structural capitulation.

Today’s compression suggested cooling, not full-cycle exhaustion. That nuance framed the current Bitcoin news backdrop as corrective rather than terminal.

Meanwhile, derivatives positioning introduced a counterbalance. Market observer CW8900 noted that retail participation in Bitcoin futures increased sharply in recent sessions.

Previous surges in retail futures activity appeared near short-term correction lows in January 2021 and June 2021.

Retail flows often respond late to volatility, yet they also cluster near emotional extremes. Rising activity during stress phases sometimes reflects opportunistic dip buying rather than panic liquidation.

That behavioral signal complicates a purely bearish interpretation. Bitcoin news therefore, presented a mixed technical landscape.

Short-term holders absorbed losses, valuation metrics remained above historic reset zones, and momentum oscillators reached unprecedented oversold levels. Each data set pointed to stress, though not uniform capitulation.

The next immediate focus rests on how price reacts to sustained macro headlines and derivatives positioning. If loss realization stabilizes while momentum remains compressed, a relief bounce could emerge.

However, if valuation metrics drift closer to prior cycle lows, deeper structural flushing may follow. For now, the market sits in a transitional phase, balancing reactive selling against early signs of exhaustion.