Bitcoin Neutral Trend, But Volatility Risk Surges in September

Key Points:

• AI models forecast a flat Bitcoin trend but show over 50% uncertainty by late September.
• A whale opened a $150M leveraged short, exposing downside risk if BTC rallies.
• Institutional treasury buying dropped sharply, signaling weakening corporate demand for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin remains range-bound as a new AI forecast using the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model shows a mostly flat trend. The model predicts a 1.72% decline over 30 days, pushing BTC to $108,771 by October 6.

However, the forecast includes a sharp rise in uncertainty, with confidence intervals widening significantly during the final week of September. This suggests increased risk and the possibility of high volatility triggered by external events or sentiment shifts.

The 7-day forecast expects a slight drop of 1.1%, which keeps BTC close to the $109,451 level. While the price trend appears stable now, the model reflects rising unpredictability that could impact short-term strategies.

Combining results from both the TFT and WaveNet models shows Bitcoin will likely stay in the $108,000 to $120,000 range this month. The main scenario supports consolidation in this band, while a secondary scenario allows for an explosive move in either direction.

The TFT model’s conservative approach still acknowledges the possibility of a surprise outcome due to its 50% uncertainty reading near month-end. This is the highest level recorded in this forecast cycle, raising the need for caution in the final week.

Whale short position and institutional retreat increase downside pressure

While AI models highlight neutral trends, market behavior hints at bearish bias as large players take aggressive short positions. A Bitcoin whale recently opened a $150.49M short trade using 25x leverage, totaling 1,350.93 BTC.

The entry price was $111,292.60, and BTC currently trades near $111,301.00, showing a small unrealized loss of 0.23%. This leaves the trade exposed to liquidation at $115,052.81, with margin used at $6.02M and funding gains of $91,645.

The presence of leveraged short interest at this scale signals caution among high-capital traders and adds to near-term selling pressure. Traders remain alert, especially if BTC tests levels near the whale’s liquidation zone.

In addition, analyst Crypto Rover notes a sharp drop in Bitcoin treasury company activity, now at 2.17 after peaking above 4.5. This decline reflects a possible slowdown in institutional demand after strong accumulation earlier this year.

Bitcoin now trades around $111,548, down 0.22% on the day, as corporate buying activity softens. The retracement may signal either temporary profit-taking or early signs of demand fatigue among institutional players.