According to analyst Axel Adler Jr, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) Year-over-Year (YoY) Realized Price currently sits at 58%.
In previous macro cycles, this metric peaked at much higher levels—165% and 144%—which coincided with Bitcoin reaching $70K and $100K, respectively. These surges were typically followed by waves of profit-taking.
To mirror those historical highs in the current cycle, the YoY Realized Price would need to climb by 82 percentage points, hitting 140%.
At the current Bitcoin price of approximately $94K, this implies a potential top around $171K.
Adler adds a reminder: “All models are wrong, but some are useful,” underscoring that while historical data can offer guidance, it’s not a guarantee of future performance.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-needs-to-hit-171000-for-realized-price-model-to-match-previous-cycle-peaks/