Bitcoin [BTC] remains locked in consolidation, for now. The asset has drifted between clearly defined ranges, moving from $86,000 to $90,000, before testing another band between $90,000 and $93,000.
This range-bound behavior suggests that the market is comfortable accumulating Bitcoin, providing temporary stability and suppressing short-term price swings.
While that calm may appeal to traders wary of sharp drawdowns, Park warns that it could ultimately work against Bitcoin’s upside trajectory.
Why volatility matters for Bitcoin’s upside
Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, has been explicit about what BTC needs next.
In a recent social media post, he argued that the upside many investors are waiting for will not materialize without a resurgence in volatility. Park said,
“It is very unlikely for Bitcoin to find momentum to the upside without experiencing significantly higher volatility,”
He noted that Bitcoin’s implied volatility currently sits near 38%, while month-to-date trading volume remains notably weak. Park described current volumes as “horrible,” adding that they are lower than any month recorded so far in 2025.
At the core of his argument is market participation. Park believes Bitcoin’s recent price action is being driven primarily by short-term traders, with limited involvement from large institutional players.
That institutional flow, he argues, is essential for driving parabolic moves and restoring the volatility that has historically accompanied major rallies.
To reinforce his point, Park pointed to silver, which recently surged to a new all-time high. That move, he said, was not the product of a calm spot market.
“Silver’s record-setting melt-up comes from all the shenanigans behind ‘paper silver,’ where margin rules, leveraged instruments and vehicles, and liquidity and maturity mismatches create immense pressure at breaking points,”
Park further explained,
“At those moments, no physical supply can be introduced fast enough to counter the velocity of paper supply.”
According to Park, Bitcoin may need a similar dynamic to regain strong upward momentum. He describes the current environment as “the worst possible setup for disappointment.”
Supporting Bitcoin, he argues, requires embracing its volatility. Anyone who claims otherwise, he adds, does not understand the fundamentals of the commodities market.
Positioning risks suggest volatility may be near
Signs of rising volatility are already emerging beneath the surface.
The Long/Short Ratio, which tracks how traders are positioned in Bitcoin derivatives markets, shows a clear dominance of long positions over shorts.
While this reflects bullish sentiment, history suggests such imbalances can become unstable when the price fails to validate conviction.
On-chain analytics platform Alphractal recently warned that the current setup carries elevated liquidation risk. The firm said,
“As long as the BTC long-to-short ratio stays above the market average without price follow-through, the risk of further liquidations remains high,”
Source: Alphractal
Should that scenario unfold, it could generate the volatility needed to force a decisive price move.
Liquidation data already shows a significant flush of short positions, with $63.64 million wiped out compared to $15.38 million in long liquidations. That imbalance, however, could reverse quickly if momentum shifts.
Bitcoin pauses after years of outperformance
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, offered a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to precious metals. He argued that the divergence is not inherently negative, framing Bitcoin’s current phase as a pause rather than a failure.
In a recent post, Balchunas noted that Bitcoin has significantly outperformed most major assets, including gold and silver, since 2022. That longer-term outperformance, he said, helps explain why Bitcoin now appears to be “taking a breather,” even as metals enjoy a stronger year.
He added that Bitcoin’s muted performance reflects how quickly the “institutionalization” narrative was priced into the market, well before many of those developments fully played out.
Source: Bloomberg
Looking ahead, Balchunas believes another narrative is forming, one that could eventually drive Bitcoin’s next major move.
“What’s the new narrative? I’m not sure it needs one beyond debt and debasement,” he said. “[That story] is clearly here to stay, and it continues growing into a bigger story every year.”
For now, Bitcoin remains caught between calm consolidation and rising tension beneath the surface, with volatility increasingly shaping the path forward.
Final Thoughts
- Jeff Park of Bitwise has argued that volatility remains a necessary condition for Bitcoin to transition into a sustained upward phase.
- That volatility may already be quietly building as the long-to-short ratio continues to lean heavily to the upside.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-needs-significantly-higher-volatility-to-rally-analyst-warns/