Bitcoin is approaching a critical on-chain threshold that could reshape short-term market behavior, just as Ethereum confirms a technical breakout of its own.
Together, the signals suggest the crypto market is entering a sensitive phase where momentum and volatility could accelerate.
- Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder NUPL is approaching the zero level, a historically important resistance zone.
- A sustained bullish shift for Bitcoin likely requires holding above the ~$99,000 short-term holder realized price.
- Ethereum has broken above $3,100 and the 21-day moving average, opening the door toward a potential move near $3,800.
According to data shared by Alphractal, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) has started climbing again and is now nearing the zero line – a level that historically acts as a key decision point for short-term participants.
Bitcoin Nears a Key Break-Even Zone
The STH NUPL metric tracks whether short-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized profits or losses. As it rises toward zero, it signals that recent buyers are close to breaking even after a period of drawdown.
Historically, this zone tends to act as resistance for the metric. A sustained move into positive territory usually requires Bitcoin to trade above and hold the Short-Term Holder
Realized Price, currently estimated around $99,000. Without that confirmation, many short-term holders remain underwater, leaving the market vulnerable to sharp reactions around key price levels.
Until Bitcoin clearly reclaims that zone, analysts warn that volatility spikes and defensive profit-taking remain likely, as traders react quickly to short-term price swings.
Ethereum Breaks Higher as Momentum Builds
While Bitcoin approaches an inflection point, Ethereum is already showing clearer technical strength. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted that Ethereum has pushed decisively above the $3,100 area and is now consolidating above that level.
$ETH has seen a clear breakout above the $3,100 area and is consolidating, quite similar to #Bitcoin.
I’m under the assumption that we’re starting a new uptrend here, as we clearly broke that 21-Day MA.
As long as that is the case, I think that we’re expanding the run in the… pic.twitter.com/B7VuwfZPsC
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 7, 2026
The move was accompanied by a clean break above the 21-day moving average, a signal often associated with the early stages of a new uptrend. As long as Ethereum holds above this short-term trend indicator, the structure points to further upside expansion.
Based on current momentum, the next major target zone being watched by traders sits around $3,800, provided broader market conditions remain supportive.
Market Sensitivity Remains High
The combination of Bitcoin nearing a crucial on-chain resistance and Ethereum entering a fresh uptrend paints a mixed but potentially explosive setup. Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim its short-term cost basis could determine whether risk appetite expands further, while Ethereum’s strength may continue to attract speculative flows in the near term.
For now, traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can follow Ethereum’s lead – or whether short-term holder pressure keeps volatility elevated.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.