Bitcoin is hovering near the $90,000 zone, a level that has become a critical battleground for the broader market trend.
While price remains inside a long-term rising channel, underlying data suggests the recovery is still fragile and lacks the participation typically seen during sustainable bullish phases.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin remains inside a long-term rising channel, but $91,000 is a critical level for trend confirmation
- Only 71% of supply is currently in profit, below the threshold historically associated with stable bullish phases
- Recent rebounds were met with break-even selling, limiting upside momentum
- A move back above 75%–80% supply in profit would strengthen the case for a sustained bullish recovery
According to analysis shared by Darkfrost, the current market structure is less about calling a short-term top or bottom and more about whether Bitcoin can preserve its long-term uptrend. Technically, a weekly close back above $91,000 is increasingly viewed as a key requirement for keeping bullish momentum intact. That level has repeatedly acted as an anchor for the trend, having been lost and reclaimed multiple times over the past months.
As long as Bitcoin remains within its multi-year ascending channel, the higher-timeframe outlook stays constructive despite ongoing volatility. A sustained breakdown below that channel, however, would signal meaningful trend damage and raise the risk of a deeper correction.
Profitability data sends a cautionary signal
Beyond price action, on-chain profitability metrics are flashing mixed signals. Darkfrost highlights that the percentage of Bitcoin supply currently in profit remains too low to support a confident bullish recovery. At present, roughly 71% of circulating supply is in profit, down sharply from recent highs and only modestly above levels that have historically preceded bear markets.
While latent profits are not inherently negative, they play a crucial psychological role. When most investors are sitting on gains, market participants are generally more willing to hold through volatility, creating a more stable price environment. However, this dynamic only works within a healthy range.
Historically, bullish phases have aligned with supply-in-profit levels above 75%. When that threshold is lost, market structure tends to weaken. The recent correction, although relatively moderate at around 31%, was enough to flush out late entrants and drive the supply-in-profit metric as low as 64%, a level rarely seen outside of early bear-market conditions.
Break-even selling caps the rebound
The recent rebound toward $90,000 briefly pushed supply in profit back to the 75% area, but the move failed to hold.
This rejection suggests many investors used the bounce to exit at break-even or reduce losses rather than commit to fresh long-term positions. That behavior has capped upside momentum and reinforced the idea that conviction remains thin.
Darkfrost warns that this metric deserves close attention in the coming weeks. If the share of supply in profit continues to trend lower, renewed panic selling could emerge, increasing the risk of another leg down. Conversely, a sustained recovery back into the 75%-80% range would likely signal improving investor confidence and provide a stronger base for a genuine bullish continuation.
What needs to change for Bitcoin to stabilize
From a market-structure perspective, the path forward is becoming clearer. Bitcoin needs both technical and on-chain confirmation. Holding above the long-term channel keeps the macro trend alive, but reclaiming key psychological and structural levels is essential to shift sentiment.
A weekly close above $91,000, combined with a rising supply-in-profit metric, would suggest the market is transitioning from defensive positioning to accumulation. Until then, the recovery remains vulnerable, driven more by short-term relief than broad-based conviction.
Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD suggest downside pressure is cooling, but neither has yet confirmed the kind of strength typically seen at the start of a sustained bullish leg.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-near-90000-as-investor-profits-remain-under-pressure/