Bitcoin MVRV ratio at a crucial retest: Do bulls still have a chance?

• BTC STH MVRV retested a key resistance level and could trigger a rally if it breaks the hurdle. 
• However, the recent uptrend momentum weakened at the $65K resistance on price charts. 

On-chain data suggested that Bitcoin [BTC] was retesting a crucial price resistance that, if broken, could set the asset up for a massive price rally. 

According to on-chain analyst Checkmate, the short-term holder’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio was retesting the 155-day moving average (MA).

Historically, a move above the MA triggered a ‘decent rally,’ per the analyst. 

Source: Checkonchain

What’s next for BTC?

For context, the MVRV ratio is a valuation metric to gauge whether BTC is overpriced or undervalued. MVRV values above 1 signal that most holders have unrealized profit. 

On the contrary, below 1 indicates that short-term investors are holding, on average, at a loss. This always happens during price consolidation and signals that BTC is undervalued. 

Apart from the BTC valuation, the STH MVRV is a support and resistance level when tracked using the 155-day MA. At press time, the metric’s value edged towards 1 and was on the verge of crossing the 155-day MA. 

The chart notes that the recent instances when STH MVRH moved above the 155-day MA were in Q1 2024 and Q4 2023. In both periods, BTC rallied massively, tipping the short-term investors to profits.

As such, a trend repeat could set BTC for a likely run. If bulls clear the resistance and surge, BTC could eye $66K and $70K, highlighted Checkmate. 

“If the bulls get their way, and we set a weekly higher high ~$65.3k, I’d reasonably expect an attempt to the ATH.”

Source: Checkonchain

The on-chain analyst added, 

“Short-Term Holders will be in a statistically large amount of profit between $66.1k and $70.8k, so I will be watching their profit-taking behaviour on the way.” 

However, on price charts, the lower timeframe showed muted momentum and a key hurdle at $65K, as illustrated by trader Skew.

The trader highlighted stalled RSI and weak flows as the reasons BTC could struggle to clear $65k in the short term. If so, the trader projected BTC could ease to $61K. 

Source: Skew/X