On Tuesday, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, fell close to $27,000 after reaching a recent high of $28,889. The drop was attributed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s crackdown on Binance.
An analyst, Tedtalksmacro, pointed out that the current price trends of Bitcoin are similar to those of 2019, where the cryptocurrency reached a bottom after deviating 83% from its all-time high (ATH) approximately 500 days before the 2020 halving.
Similarly, Ted predicts that Bitcoin will bottom out in 2023 after dropping 78% from its ATH, approximately 500 days before the 2024 halving.
Ted also noted that the 2021/22 echo bubble exceeded the 2018 echo bubble by a multiple, and hypothesized that barring another black swan event like a third world war, the COVID black swan price action should not repeat itself.
Another analyst, Andrew Kang, drew parallels between the present and 2020, where regulatory FUD surrounded Bitcoin after the COVID recovery, causing markets to be hit with a barrage of regulatory FUD from US and China regulators.
The US government targeted CryptoHayes and Bitmex, while the Chinese government went after OKX and Huobi executives. Despite this, the markets could not break below $10k and eventually climbed the wall of worry.
Conclusion
the current price trends of Bitcoin are similar to those of 2019, where the cryptocurrency reached a bottom approximately 500 days before the halving. While the 2021/22 echo bubble exceeded the 2018 echo bubble, analysts predict that Bitcoin will bottom out in 2023, barring any black swan events, and climb back up during the consolidation phase. Despite regulatory FUD surrounding Bitcoin, the markets have shown resilience and climbed the wall of worry.
Source: https://coinpedia.org/bitcoin/bitcoin-might-face-worst-case-scenario-if-btc-price-mirrors-2019-price-trajectory/