Bitcoin May Hit $131k If This Support Holds: What Lies Ahead for BTC Price?

Key Insights:

• Ali Martinez’s chart suggests BTC price may extend gains if it holds above key support.
• Prediction markets assign highest odds to continued bullish momentum through early August 2025.
• Public companies now hold over 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, signaling rising institutional interest.

Ali Martinez highlights a bullish continuation for Bitcoin (BTC) price, supported by key Fibonacci support levels and trendlines. Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) price has demonstrated a dynamic yet resilient performance, marked by price swings and quick recoveries.

Trading within a range of approximately $116,000 to $121,000, the crypto experienced several intraday peaks and dips.

According to recent data, Bitcoin price has posted a modest 2.0% gain over the past 7 days. Zooming out, the 14-day performance reflects a 9.7% increase, while over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has gained a significant 16.2%.

Notably, this rather positive perfomance coincides with increased positive Bitcoin predictions.

BTC Price Technical Analysis Signals Bullish Continuation

For instance, a key chart shared by Ali Martinez provides additional insight into Bitcoin’s price movement, showing a 4-hour view of BTC/USDT on Binance. The chart applies Fibonacci retracement and extension levels based on a swing low around $98,115 and a high at $123,300. Central to Martinez’s analysis is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $117,416.

He suggests that as long as BTC price stays above this critical support level, there is a strong possibility for a bullish continuation.

In particular, there is a 1.272 Fibonacci extension at the price of 131,205, which is regarded as the next technical target.

Another interesting feature of the chart is an upward trend line that has offered support on a steady basis since the end of June. Although Bitcoin briefly dipped below this trendline—reaching near $116,000—it quickly rebounded, signs of bear-traps. This price move attracts short-sellers only to suddenly turn against them.

According to Martinez, should the price of Bitcoin continue to soak its feet above $117,400, then the crypto will be in a good position to threaten its former local high at $123,300 in the short to mid-term.

Prediction Markets Reinforce Bullish Outlook

Data from BTC price prediction markets further supports the optimistic sentiment. Looking ahead to August 1, 2025, prediction markets assign a 40% probability that Bitcoin will reach at least $125,000.

This aligns closely with the current resistance zone highlighted in Martinez’s chart and signals strong market belief in continued price strength.

Additionally, 13% of market participants foresee Bitcoin hitting $130,000 by the end of July, while 4% believe a price point of $140,000 is attainable within that same time frame. Although smaller in proportion, these percentages are still considered significant within the context of prediction markets. In comparison, extreme upside levels—such as $150,000 or $200,000—remain remote possibilities, garnering only 1–2% or less in probability.

A Strategic Hedge for Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Elsewhere, there has been an influx of capital into Bitcoin treasury companies, raising concerns among industry leaders. In a recent discussion, Ben Harvey of Keyrock explored the influx of capital into Bitcoin treasury companies, particularly focusing on the role of convertible debt in this dynamic.

Harvey was responding to Antony Pompliano’s question regarding the capital that’s entering the space and whether it’s properly hedged against Bitcoin’s price movements.

Harvey explained that a significant portion of the capital raised—around $8.2 billion, with figures now reaching $10-15 billion—comes through convertible debt arbitrage. This approach allows investors to gain exposure to the growth of Bitcoin treasury companies without directly facing Bitcoin’s price volatility.

For example, MicroStrategy holds a massive position in the options market, with open interest surpassing even that of Microsoft, providing these investors with targeted exposure to specific parts of the options profile.

Harvey elaborated that convertible debt functions as a bond combined with a call option, allowing investors to hedge out everything except for volatility.

This presents an opportunity for traders to make money during Bitcoin’s price volatility like when it rises, thereby the premium on these debt instruments increases.

As the premium goes up, players like MicroStrategy can buy more Bitcoin which means their Bitcoin per share goes up and further escalates the cycle, even attracting more investors.