Bitcoin May Face Resistance Near $116,000 as Analysts Split on Fed Cut and Q4 Catalysts

Bitcoin is trading near a new resistance at about $116,000; immediate upside is limited until buyers reclaim that level decisively. Two near-term catalysts — a likely Fed rate cut and Q4 seasonal strength — could lift BTC if momentum and order flow align.

• New resistance formed near $116,000 limiting short-term upside.

• Market expects a 25 bps Fed cut; reaction could be mixed depending on positioning.

• Q4 historically favors Bitcoin: average returns since 2013 show positive seasonality.

Bitcoin price outlook: BTC near $116k resistance; watch Fed decision and Q4 catalysts — read analysts’ views and strategy guidance now.

There’s division among crypto analysts over how Bitcoin will react to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, whether or not a rate cut is announced.

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Bitcoin has established a new resistance around $116,000, which is unlikely to change until the cryptocurrency gains renewed momentum, Bitfinex analysts say.

However, two potential catalysts on the horizon could help bolster the price of Bitcoin (BTC). Market participants point to a likely interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and the historically strong performance of Q4 as the primary drivers.

Bitcoin is up 4.34% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap

What will Bitcoin do after the Fed rate decision?

Bitcoin price may move sharply depending on how traders price a 25 basis point cut and how much of that move is already priced in. If the Fed cuts as expected, risk assets including BTC could rally, but the market often retraces if the event was fully anticipated.

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How could a Fed rate cut affect Bitcoin price?

Market pricing shows a 96.1% probability of a 25 bps cut (CME FedWatch Tool). Historically, lower rates improve liquidity and can lift risk-on assets, but immediate moves depend on positioning and flows. At the time of publication, Bitcoin trades at about $116,370 (CoinMarketCap), with momentum faded since the all-time high of $124,100 on Aug. 14.

Why are analysts divided over the Fed reaction?

Some strategists see a rate cut as a clear bullish catalyst. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee suggested easing could trigger large moves for BTC and ETH over the next three months. Other analysts caution that a cut is often priced in; one crypto analyst noted a potential retracement scenario with BTC dipping to $104,000 or even $92,000 before resuming an uptrend.

When could Q4 serve as a bullish catalyst for crypto?

October 1 marks the start of Q4, historically Bitcoin’s strongest quarter with an average return of 85.42% since 2013 (CoinGlass). Seasonal patterns and institutional flows have contributed to outsized gains in Q4 historically, making it a key period for investors to monitor momentum and allocation decisions.

What on-chain and holder metrics suggest long-term confidence?

Bitfinex analysts note long-term holder confidence remains elevated. The recent drop to $107,400 on Sept. 1 was largely driven by short-term buyers, while long-term accumulation metrics show continued conviction among older cohorts. This distribution dynamic can limit immediate upside but supports longer-term bullish frameworks.

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