- A major Bitcoin debate has emerged: Technical analyst Ali Martinez suggests Bitcoin has topped and is entering a “macro downtrend.”
- Santiment data shows a bullish counter-signal: Bitcoin has broken its 4-year correlation with equities, falling 15% while the S&P 500 gained 7%.
- Santiment interprets this divergence as a sign Bitcoin is “undervalued,” while Martinez sees a historical bear cycle repeating.
Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical market inflection point. A sharp divergence has emerged between bearish technical analysts and bullish on-chain data, leaving traders to question if Bitcoin is in a “macro downtrend” or a “momentum build-up.”
The Bearish Technical Thesis: A ‘Macro Downtrend’
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests Bitcoin may have slipped into a macro downtrend. He noted that comparing the cryptocurrency’s price movement with the 2015–2018 or 2018–2022 cycles suggests the current cycle established its top on October 26.
This historical-cycle analysis from Martinez highlights Bitcoin’s tendency to embark on a prolonged bear trend after such a peak.
The Bullish Fundamental Divergence: A 4-Year Correlation Breaks
Martinez’s latest post on X reveals Bitcoin’s price performance for the current cycle, side-by-side with the performance of previous cycles. However, it is worth noting that the Bitcoin ecosystem has experienced a notable shift since 2022, particularly in the area of underlying factors that affect the market trend.
Although Martinez’s post highlights Bitcoin’s tendency to embark on a bear trend, Santiment’s data suggests otherwise. The latest post from the cryptocurrency analysis platform reveals a correlation break between crypto and equities over the past three months after moving in tandem for the past four years.
Related: Bitcoin Whales Mirror Retail Selling, Recovery Could Take Longer – Santiment
According to Santiment’s data, Gold has gained 21% in the past three months, while the S&P 500 has gained 7% over the same period. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency, saw a 15% price decline. Santiment considers the data a reflection of Bitcoin’s undervalued nature and the cryptocurrency’s potential.
Exchange Reserves Prove Bitcoin’s Stability
In the meantime, Martinez highlighted the growing stability in the Bitcoin market, citing Binance’s total reserve holding that was $120 billion, with a USDT reserve that reached a new all-time high of $42.8 billion. Meanwhile, the BTC holdings on the exchange stood at 548,000 Bitcoins.
Many analysts applauded Binance’s reserve holdings, particularly in Bitcoin and USDT, citing it as a reflection of the crypto exchange’s ability to withstand the typical volatility often experienced in the cryptocurrency market. They consider it a solid backbone that sustains the cryptocurrency trading platform across the various seasons.
According to TradingView’s data, Bitcoin traded for $103,496 at the time of writing after experiencing a 4.67% pullback in the past 24 hours.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Absorbed Billions in Selling: Here’s Why the Price Didn’t Crash
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Source: https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-macro-downtrend-vs-bullish-santiment-correlation-break/