Bitcoin lost 72% in 2018 under Trump – Will 2025 be different?

• Bitcoin has lost trillions in just a week following Trump’s high-stake tariffs on three of its biggest import partners.
• Will risky assets survive the pressure, or will traditional finance reclaim its safe-haven status?

Less than twenty days into office, Trump’s bold policies are already shaking the crypto market, erasing 8.29% of its value. While the market has so far shrugged off a rate hike, the real question is – how long can it hold?

It’s shaping up to be a defining year – 2025 will put Bitcoin’s “safe haven” status to the ultimate test.

The rising pressure on risk assets

The U.S.-China trade war may not be new, but its impact is hitting hard. Analysts predicted this economic shift long before Trump took office, and now it’s clear.

Bitcoin has lost over 6% of its market share, wiping trillions of dollars in the process. Stakeholders are now playing it safe. How?

Gold (XAU) has surged over 3% weekly, reaching a new all-time high of over $2,880 per ounce.

Source: TradingView (XAU/USD)

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has followed suit, soaring above 109. The 10% tariff on Chinese imports has inflated the index, as fears of an interest rate hike push investors into bonds for safer returns.

Despite a “lower-than-expected” U.S. inflation report that kept the Fed from raising rates, rising import costs from Canada, Mexico, and China could push inflation up. This may keep the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon.

With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January just days away, all eyes are on it. An uptick in CPI could spark another market-wide shock, potentially sending Bitcoin tumbling below $90K.

Is Bitcoin ready to withstand the pressure?

Remember Trump’s first term as President? The U.S.-China trade war ramped up significantly, and his “Make in America” campaign only gathered more steam.

In 2018, when Trump started slashing taxes on Chinese goods, Bitcoin took a major hit, dropping 72% and closing the year at $3,740. 

Source: BitBo

But there’s a bright spot: U.S. imports from China have dropped by 8 percentage points since then, now making up just 13.5% of total imports.

On top of that, Bitcoin’s status as a “safe haven” has steadily gained momentum over the past seven years.

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026

So, while Bitcoin still trails behind Gold in both market cap and investor trust, a double-digit loss seems unlikely at this stage. Even without a rate cut to break resistance, institutional capital is poised to absorb the pressure.

However, the “risk” of investing in crypto assets has significantly increased, making an interest rate hike a major deal-breaker for high-caps.

With so much on the line, monitoring the U.S. economic calendar is more crucial than ever.