Key Insights:
- Bitcoin LTHs have reduced selling pressure, while STHs continued to hold their BTC.
- Tony Severino adds balance, says Bitcoin is not fully decoupled from traditional economics yet.
- BTC is only 42.9% from hitting a new all-time high.
BTC long-term holders (LTHs) have paused selling for the leading cryptocurrency. This shift in behavior signals potential Bitcoin price rebounds as seen in previous cycles.
At the same time, analysts shared mixed sentiments for BTC’s future based on its historical 4-year cycle.
The Bitcoin Price and LTH Capitulation
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju commented in an X post that long-term Bitcoin holders had stopped selling. His comment was in response to a post from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, highlighting a recent shift in Bitcoin’s LTHs.
The analyst described LTHs as investors who have held coins for more than 6 months. On the contrary, short-term holders (STH) have held coins for less than 6 months.
Darkfost shared a chart that showed a clear shift in Bitcoin LTH supply. The chart used a key metric, the 30-day rolling change in LTH supply. The analyst adjusted the chart to remove the distortion from the nearly 800,000 BTC movement from Coinbase.
Since July 16, the LTH supply has decreased steadily. Recently, the metric flipped positive, and only about 10,700 BTC net transitioned into LTH status.
This modest increase suggests LTHs have reduced selling pressure, while STHs continued to hold their BTC.
Darkfost concluded that such shifts have often historically preceded the formation of consolidation phases or even bullish recoveries. This is, however, dependent on how the broader crypto market trend evolves.
Notably, Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, also commented on the recent behaviors of BTC LTHs. He claimed LTHs were becoming net sellers.
Wedson noted that the Net Position Change metric had turned negative, indicating LTHs were selling more than accumulating.
He emphasized that Bitcoin price tends to suffer much stronger downside pressure when LTHs are distributing. Still, he argued that this behavior frequently aligns with cycle tops.
Mixed Sentiments on the BTC Price 4-Year Cycle Trend
Amid projections about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, analysts have shared their perspective based on the 4-year cycle trend.
Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician and BTC trader, argued that pre-Bitcoin business cycles show the truth most charts leave out.
Severino thinks many modern Bitcoin cycle charts only focus on post-halving patterns, which have often shown strong recoveries. Essentially, BTC rally post-halving is largely driven by induced supply shocks and improved macro liquidity.
Severino, however, noted that the BTC price does not automatically have to reverse higher. Rather, he claimed Bitcoin could face an extended downside if the business cycle enters a recessionary trough, as seen in 2008.
His comment was a reply to a shared post from crypto analyst TechDev. The analyst included a chart of Bitcoin price cycles with traditional business cycles. Its current dip mirrors past cycle lows tied to temporary macro weakness before halving-driven upside into 2026.
Timeline of Bitcoin Price Rebound
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin price was traded at $88,589, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin analyst Pierre Rochard noted that it had been 85 days since the coin hit its all-time high (ATH) of $126,296. He added that Bitcoin only needed $37,000 from its current price to reach a new ATH.
Rochard views the post-ATH correction as a healthy shakeout or buying opportunity rather than the end of the bull cycle.
His comment echoes the idea that Bitcoin’s best gains come to those who accumulate during multi-month consolidations or drawdowns.
These similar periods in past cycles often come before price breakouts. If BTC follows a similar pattern this cycle, the leading coin is set for more price rebounds soon.
However, the BTC price consolidation reflects extreme fear among investors over the past 30 days. This outcome suggests that investors remained unsure about the next direction of the coin.