Bitcoin-Led Rebound May Cap Altcoin Upside While 76% of Binance Alts Trade Below 200-Day SMA

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Bitcoin is currently leading the market rebound, capturing roughly 56% of recent inflows and keeping most altcoins in an accumulation phase; if BTC meets resistance, rotation into altcoins could accelerate, creating selective buying opportunities for projects below their 200‑day SMA.

• Bitcoin-led rebound: BTC accounted for 56% of recent market inflows

• Only 24% of Binance-listed altcoins sit above their 200‑day SMA, signaling widespread accumulation.

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129,474 traders liquidated ($592.19M) indicates elevated derivatives risk and potential for sharp rotations.

Buy altcoins: Bitcoin-led rebound caps alts now; watch BTC resistance and 200‑day SMA levels for entry. Read analysis and trade plan from COINOTAG.

Is the market favoring Bitcoin or altcoins right now?

Bitcoin is favoring the rebound. BTC captured the majority of the October inflow, pushing total market cap higher while keeping altcoins in an accumulation zone. If BTC loses momentum at resistance, capital rotation into altcoins is likely and could trigger sharper alt gains.

How much of the recent inflow went into Bitcoin versus altcoins?

Recent data shows total market cap rose about 3.88% (~$160B). Bitcoin’s market cap climbed ~3.92, contributing roughly $90B—about 56% of total inflows—while TOTAL2 (ex‑BTC) rose 3.81%, confirming a BTC‑led rebound and typical rotational flows.

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The market flipped risk‑on at the start of Q4, producing the longest green candle since August. BTC dominance rose as traders piled into large‑cap liquidity, keeping much of altcoin leverage capped.

Source: TradingView (TOTAL/USDT)

Why are altcoins still in accumulation despite the rebound?

Only 24% of Binance altcoins are above their 200‑day SMA, indicating 76% remain below long‑term trend and in accumulation. This setup typically precedes broader altcoin rallies once risk capital rotates away from Bitcoin.

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The Altcoin Season Index recently dipped two points to 65, showing rotation away from a full alt‑season. With derivatives markets (especially BTC open interest) still hot, excessive risk into alts remains capped until BTC confirms further weakness or a decisive pullback.

What happened in the recent derivatives squeeze and why it matters?

A sharp sell‑off triggered large liquidations: CoinGlass reports 129,474 traders liquidated for ~$592.19M, with ~81% from short positions. Bitcoin accounted for $423M of those liquidations, fueling a quick squeeze and the current BTC‑led bounce.

Source: Coinglass

Open Interest remains elevated near all‑time highs, implying strong leverage. Elevated leverage increases the likelihood of volatile, fast rotations between BTC and altcoins—creating both short‑term risk and selective opportunities.

Alts in accumulation zone — Is this a good time to buy altcoins?

Data suggests a selective buying opportunity. CryptoQuant highlights accumulation risk/reward is favorable: with euphoria cooling and the Season Index near key support, many alts trade below their 200‑day SMA offering tactical dip‑buy setups.

Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, altcoin tops align with a near‑100% reading of alts above their 200‑day SMA. That condition is far from present, which supports a measured accumulation thesis rather than a breakout mania.

How should traders approach entries given current conditions?

Focus on selective, risk‑limited positions:

• Buy a portion on dips for projects with clear liquidity and fundamentals.
• Use the 200‑day SMA as a structural guide—prefer buys below this level for accumulation.
• Size positions expecting rotation: keep stop losses tight and take profits incrementally if BTC shows renewed dominance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I buy altcoins while Bitcoin leads the market?

Yes, but selectively. Prioritize projects with liquidity and fundamentals and enter below the 200‑day SMA. Expect slower, rotational gains until BTC confirms sustained weakness at resistance.

What metrics signal an altcoin rotation?

Look for declining BTC dominance, an uptick in altcoin volume, and a rebound in the Altcoin Season Index toward higher readings. Derivatives deleveraging often precedes sustained rotation.

Key Takeaways

• BTC dominance for now: Bitcoin captured ~56% of recent inflows, leading the market rebound.
• Altcoins in accumulation: 76% of Binance altcoins trade below the 200‑day SMA—opportunity for selective dip buys.
• Manage risk: Elevated derivatives OI and recent $592M in liquidations mean tight stops and position sizing are essential.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has led the early Q4 rebound, capturing the bulk of inflows and keeping most altcoins in accumulation. Buy altcoins selectively—focus on names below their 200‑day SMA and manage risk given elevated derivatives activity. Monitor BTC resistance and season‑index shifts for the next rotation opportunity.

By COINOTAG — Published: 2025-10-02 — Updated: 2025-10-02

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