 
 
Bitcoin is significantly undervalued relative to its fair market value, according to Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which oversees approximately $12 billion in assets.
Speaking in September 2025, Hougan stated that based on current macroeconomic conditions and institutional adoption trends, Bitcoin’s price should already be at $200,000.
His comments come amid growing institutional interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed discussions around BTC’s long-term valuation models.
This figure sets the baseline for comparing production with demand. Every incremental purchase above that level puts pressure on the available float.
Because issuance is fixed and transparent, Hougan said the conversation around fair value is no longer about speculative sentiment but about straightforward arithmetic.
 
If institutions and funds continue to absorb more coins than miners produce, supply will tighten, and price should adjust accordingly.
On the demand side, Hougan cited three distinct drivers. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to his May remarks, these funds had already generated approximately $6 billion in net inflows by the time of Consensus 2025.
Those inflows represented only the early months of activity, showing how quickly institutional channels can create sustained demand.
Bitwise’s published $200K projection
The $200,000 target is not a new or casual forecast. Bitwise published it formally in December 2024 in its report “The Year Ahead: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2025.” That research outlined the firm’s case that supply shortages and expanding institutional demand would push Bitcoin toward $200K by year-end.
Bitwise has since repeated the projection in multiple public appearances. The firm continued to stand by the $200,000 figure.
If even a fraction of institutional and sovereign demand persists, the number of available coins for trading shrinks. Hougan framed this as a simple mismatch: more buyers than coins.
This supply-demand gap, he argued, is why Bitcoin is currently undervalued. According to his model, the market has yet to price in the effect of institutional absorption fully.
Bitwise Limits of the forecast
It is important to note that the $200,000 projection remains a forecast, not a realized outcome. Hougan himself described it as a target based on inputs available at the time: miner supply, ETF flows, and disclosed corporate purchases.
Matt Hougan’s case for a $200,000 Bitcoin rests on verifiable numbers: 165,000 BTC mined annually, $6 billion of ETF inflows, and corporate purchases already exceeding new supply.
Bitwise, a $12 billion asset manager, has put those numbers into a formal target first published in December 2024 and reaffirmed throughout 2025.