Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started, Bitcoin Intelligence Report

Bitcoin continues to outperform major assets, and models are predicting a price of $200k by the EOY, with over $1M in the next five.

Bitcoin continues to outperform major assets in long-term returns. Data from a recent Bitcoin Intelligence Report shows that the asset is holding a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.5% over the last decade. 

This is much higher than the Nasdaq’s recent 10-year CAGR of 16% and gold’s 10.65% average over the same period. Even when gold’s performance is adjusted for its 2% annual supply growth, Bitcoin’s is still stronger and poised for more gains.

Bitcoin Price Models Signal Strong Future Potential

According to long-standing models highlighted in the Bitcoin Intelligence report, BTC could reach between $150,000 and $200,000 by the fourth quarter of the year. 

For context, the power-law model has tracked Bitcoin’s price with high accuracy for 16 years. This time, it now predicts that the asset will experience a gradual slowdown in annual growth to 30% by the next five years.

🚨 Just dropped: Bitcoin Intelligence Report 24

Bitcoin’s growth is slowing a bit — our model sees it going from 42.5% a year now to around 30% by 2030.

Price held strong at $114K–$117K and climbed to $121K. Next big test is $126K–$135K.

Global money flows are picking up… pic.twitter.com/JdKq3B25Xg

— 21st Capital (@21st_capital) August 12, 2025

However, even with this deceleration, Bitcoin would hit triple the rate of gold’s supply-adjusted growth.

The report featured another model called the quantile analysis. According to this model, Bitcoin is expected to have a base trend around $120,000 for the current year, with a strong likelihood for higher prices.

In all, these models indicate that Bitcoin could hit $1.2 million to $1.5 million by the next five years.

Current Market Signals

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $124,450 this week before pulling back to around $121,670. While some technical indicators are showing signs of some possible short-term weakness, on-chain data tells a different story.

Metrics from CryptoQuant show that the market is not yet in overheated territory. The funding rate, which shows trader sentiment and leverage, is still moderate compared to peaks in the past.

This indicates that traders are optimistic, but are not in a frenzy yet.

The short-term holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is also low at 1.01%. This means that a few short-term investors are selling for profit, and the long-term holders are showing strong holding behaviour.

Some Analysts Warn of a Possible Short-Term Top

Not all indicators are bullish, though. Technical analyst Captain Faibik recently pointed out several bearish signals, including a “9th TD sell candle” on the daily chart and a bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI). 

The RSI recently hit overbought conditions across multiple timeframes, which is a situation that has sometimes come before price corrections.

$BTC Liquidity has been grabbed at the highs…💰

We’ve now printed the 9th TD Sell Candle..📉

Daily RSI is Printing Bearish Divergence,, 📉

Rising Wedge Formation..📉

This combination suggests the top might be in & Bearish Rally could be around the corner.

Don’t get trapped… pic.twitter.com/5tghPpFcBv

— Captain Faibik 🐺 (@CryptoFaibik) August 14, 2025

In all, Bitcoin’s growth is well supported by strong institutional demand, limited new supply, and great macroeconomic trends. 

If the models are accurate, the $200,000 target for the year is achievable. Long-term holders and institutions seem to be confident, and the current behaviour of the market does not indicate that a peak is here yet.

Bitcoin is likely to experience some short-term volatility. However, the long-term future continues to point upwards.

Traders and investors will have to monitor both technical indicators and on-chain data for indicators of what comes next..